Variability and mechanisms of megadroughts over eastern China during the last millennium: A model study

The variability and mechanisms of multi-decadal megadroughts over eastern China during the last millennium were investigated using a control, full-forcing, and four sensitivity experiments from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) archive. The model simulated megadroughts have comparable magnitudes and durations with those derived from reconstructed proxy data, although the megadroughts are not temporally synchronous. In all experiments, the megadroughts exhibit similar spatial structures, corresponding to a weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM) and a strengthening of the East Asia winter monsoon (EAWM). The results show that internal climate variability within the coupled climate system plays an essential role in triggering megadroughts, while different external forcings may contribute to persistence and modify the anomaly patterns of megadroughts. A pattern of meridional tripolar (warm-cold-warm) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the western Pacific stretching from the equator to high latitude is responsible for the EASM weakening and EAWM strengthening. The weakening of the EASM and strengthening of the EAWM are essentially caused by negative SST anomalies over the northwestern Pacific and positive SST anomalies over the equatorial western Pacific, which are associated with a La Niña-like SST gradient across the tropical Pacific. The external forcings prolong the megadroughts through maintenance of the meridional tripolar SST anomalies and enlarge the megadrought spatial extent by magnifying the meridional tripolar SST anomalies.