Urban warming advances spring phenology but reduces the response of phenology to temperature in the conterminous United States

Lin Meng; Jiafu Mao; Yuyu Zhou; Andrew D. Richardson; Xuhui Lee; Peter E. Thornton; Daniel M. Ricciuto; Xuecao Li; Yongjiu Dai; Xiaoying Shi; Gensuo Jia

doi:10.1073/pnas.1911117117

Urban warming advances spring phenology but reduces the response of phenology to temperature in the conterminous United States

Lin Meng, Jiafu Mao, Yuyu Zhou, Andrew D. Richardson, Xuhui Lee, Peter E. Thornton, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Xuecao Li, Yongjiu Dai, Xiaoying Shi, Gensuo Jia

Earth Systems Modeling

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

121 Scopus citations

Abstract

Urbanization has caused environmental changes, such as urban heat islands (UHIs), that affect terrestrial ecosystems. However, how and to what extent urbanization affects plant phenology remains relatively unexplored. Here, we investigated the changes in the satellite-derived start of season (SOS) and the covariation between SOS and temperature (R_T) in 85 large cities across the conterminous United States for the period 2001–2014. We found that 1) the SOS came significantly earlier (6.1 ± 6.3 d) in 74 cities and R_T was significantly weaker (0.03 ± 0.07) in 43 cities when compared with their surrounding rural areas (P < 0.05); 2) the decreased magnitude in R_T mainly occurred in cities in relatively cold regions with an annual mean temperature <17.3 °C (e.g., Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania); and 3) the magnitude of urban−rural difference in both SOS and R_T was primarily correlated with the intensity of UHI. Simulations of two phenology models further suggested that more and faster heat accumulation contributed to the earlier SOS, while a decrease in required chilling led to a decline in R_T magnitude in urban areas. These findings provide observational evidence of a reduced covariation between temperature and SOS in major US cities, implying the response of spring phenology to warming conditions in nonurban environments may decline in the warming future.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	4228-4233
Number of pages	6
Journal	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume	117
Issue number	8
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1911117117
State	Published - Feb 25 2020

Funding

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. This work was supported by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Science Scientific Focus Area (TES SFA) project, the Reducing Uncertainties in Biogeochemical Interactions through Synthesis and Computing Scientific Focus Area (RUBISCO SFA) project, and the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) project, funded by the US Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Oak Ridge National Laboratory is supported by the Office of Science of the DOE under Contract DE-AC05-00OR22725. L.M. is also supported by NASA Research Opportunities in Space and Earth Science (ROSES) Climate Indicators and Data Products for Future National Climate Assessments (INCA) Program “NNH14ZDA001N-INCA” and Future Investigators in NASA Earth and Space Science and Technology (FINESST) Program “NNH19ZDA005K.” A.D.R. acknowledges funding from NSF, through the Macrosystems Biology program (DEB-1702697). This manuscript has been authored by UT-Battelle LLC under Contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the DOE. The US Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the US Government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, world-wide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for US Government purposes. This work was supported by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Science Scientific Focus Area (TES SFA) project, the Reducing Uncertainties in Biogeochemical Interactions through Synthesis and Computing Scientific Focus Area (RUBISCO SFA) project, and the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) project, funded by the US Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Oak Ridge National Laboratory is supported by the Office of Science of the DOE under Contract DE-AC05-00OR22725. L.M. is also supported by NASA Research Opportunities in Space and Earth Science (ROSES) Climate Indicators and Data Products for Future National Climate Assessments (INCA) Program ?NNH14ZDA001N-INCA? and Future Investigators in NASA Earth and Space Science and Technology (FINESST) Program ?NNH19ZDA005K.? A.D.R. acknowledges funding from NSF, through the Macrosystems Biology program (DEB-1702697). This manuscript has been authored by UT-Battelle LLC under Contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the DOE. The US Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the US Government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for US Government purposes.

Keywords

Phenology
Temperature response
Urban heat island
Urbanization

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1073/pnas.1911117117

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Meng, L., Mao, J., Zhou, Y., Richardson, A. D., Lee, X., Thornton, P. E., Ricciuto, D. M., Li, X., Dai, Y., Shi, X., & Jia, G. (2020). Urban warming advances spring phenology but reduces the response of phenology to temperature in the conterminous United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 117(8), 4228-4233. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1911117117

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abstract = "Urbanization has caused environmental changes, such as urban heat islands (UHIs), that affect terrestrial ecosystems. However, how and to what extent urbanization affects plant phenology remains relatively unexplored. Here, we investigated the changes in the satellite-derived start of season (SOS) and the covariation between SOS and temperature (RT) in 85 large cities across the conterminous United States for the period 2001–2014. We found that 1) the SOS came significantly earlier (6.1 ± 6.3 d) in 74 cities and RT was significantly weaker (0.03 ± 0.07) in 43 cities when compared with their surrounding rural areas (P < 0.05); 2) the decreased magnitude in RT mainly occurred in cities in relatively cold regions with an annual mean temperature <17.3 °C (e.g., Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania); and 3) the magnitude of urban−rural difference in both SOS and RT was primarily correlated with the intensity of UHI. Simulations of two phenology models further suggested that more and faster heat accumulation contributed to the earlier SOS, while a decrease in required chilling led to a decline in RT magnitude in urban areas. These findings provide observational evidence of a reduced covariation between temperature and SOS in major US cities, implying the response of spring phenology to warming conditions in nonurban environments may decline in the warming future.",

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Meng, L, Mao, J, Zhou, Y, Richardson, AD, Lee, X, Thornton, PE , Ricciuto, DM, Li, X, Dai, Y, Shi, X & Jia, G 2020, 'Urban warming advances spring phenology but reduces the response of phenology to temperature in the conterminous United States', Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. 117, no. 8, pp. 4228-4233. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1911117117

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T1 - Urban warming advances spring phenology but reduces the response of phenology to temperature in the conterminous United States

AU - Meng, Lin

AU - Mao, Jiafu

AU - Zhou, Yuyu

AU - Richardson, Andrew D.

AU - Lee, Xuhui

AU - Thornton, Peter E.

AU - Ricciuto, Daniel M.

AU - Li, Xuecao

AU - Dai, Yongjiu

AU - Shi, Xiaoying

AU - Jia, Gensuo

PY - 2020/2/25

Y1 - 2020/2/25

N2 - Urbanization has caused environmental changes, such as urban heat islands (UHIs), that affect terrestrial ecosystems. However, how and to what extent urbanization affects plant phenology remains relatively unexplored. Here, we investigated the changes in the satellite-derived start of season (SOS) and the covariation between SOS and temperature (RT) in 85 large cities across the conterminous United States for the period 2001–2014. We found that 1) the SOS came significantly earlier (6.1 ± 6.3 d) in 74 cities and RT was significantly weaker (0.03 ± 0.07) in 43 cities when compared with their surrounding rural areas (P < 0.05); 2) the decreased magnitude in RT mainly occurred in cities in relatively cold regions with an annual mean temperature <17.3 °C (e.g., Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania); and 3) the magnitude of urban−rural difference in both SOS and RT was primarily correlated with the intensity of UHI. Simulations of two phenology models further suggested that more and faster heat accumulation contributed to the earlier SOS, while a decrease in required chilling led to a decline in RT magnitude in urban areas. These findings provide observational evidence of a reduced covariation between temperature and SOS in major US cities, implying the response of spring phenology to warming conditions in nonurban environments may decline in the warming future.

AB - Urbanization has caused environmental changes, such as urban heat islands (UHIs), that affect terrestrial ecosystems. However, how and to what extent urbanization affects plant phenology remains relatively unexplored. Here, we investigated the changes in the satellite-derived start of season (SOS) and the covariation between SOS and temperature (RT) in 85 large cities across the conterminous United States for the period 2001–2014. We found that 1) the SOS came significantly earlier (6.1 ± 6.3 d) in 74 cities and RT was significantly weaker (0.03 ± 0.07) in 43 cities when compared with their surrounding rural areas (P < 0.05); 2) the decreased magnitude in RT mainly occurred in cities in relatively cold regions with an annual mean temperature <17.3 °C (e.g., Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania); and 3) the magnitude of urban−rural difference in both SOS and RT was primarily correlated with the intensity of UHI. Simulations of two phenology models further suggested that more and faster heat accumulation contributed to the earlier SOS, while a decrease in required chilling led to a decline in RT magnitude in urban areas. These findings provide observational evidence of a reduced covariation between temperature and SOS in major US cities, implying the response of spring phenology to warming conditions in nonurban environments may decline in the warming future.

KW - Phenology

KW - Temperature response

KW - Urban heat island

KW - Urbanization

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AN - SCOPUS:85080099981

SN - 0027-8424

VL - 117

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EP - 4233

JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

IS - 8

ER -

Urban warming advances spring phenology but reduces the response of phenology to temperature in the conterminous United States

Abstract

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

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