Unprecedented Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Genesis in 2018 Shaped by Subtropical Warming in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic

Chao Wang; Bin Wang; Jian Cao

doi:10.1029/2019GL085406

Unprecedented Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Genesis in 2018 Shaped by Subtropical Warming in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic

Chao Wang
, Bin Wang
, Jian Cao

Computational Earth Sciences Group

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

22 Scopus citations

Abstract

Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone (TC) genesis (TCG) frequency in June-September of 2018 reached a record high since 1965. This unprecedented TCG was mainly driven by the North Pacific (NP) and the subtropical North Atlantic (NA). TCs in the western North Pacific (WNP) predominately took a northward-recurving track, resulting in the highest number of named storm days in the subtropical WNP on record. TCs in the eastern North Pacific propagated anomalously westward with three Category 4–5 hurricanes reaching the central North Pacific. The unprecedented TCG in the NP was caused by a persistent weakening of the NP subtropical high that was tightly coupled with the subtropical NP sea surface temperature (SST) warming. In the NA, enhanced TCG was mainly found in the subtropics owing to a favorable large-scale environment forced by subtropical SST warming. The result here has important implications for understanding variability in TC activity on the hemisphere-scale.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	13327-13337
Number of pages	11
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	46
Issue number	22
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085406
State	Published - Nov 28 2019

Funding

The authors thank Dr. Suzana Camargo, Dr. Phil Klotzbach, and an anonymous reviewer for their important suggestions for improving the manuscript. This study was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41705060, 41420104002, 41730961, 41675072, and 41605032), the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (BK20170941 and BK20171095), and the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFA0600401). This is the ESMC publication number 288, and the IPRC publication number 1415. The NCEP reanalysis data are available (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/reanalysis/reanalysis.shtml). The best track data from the JTWC are available (http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfcph/RSS/jtwc/best_tracks). The NHC best track data are available (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/). The 2018 best track data are available (http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/season.asp?storm_season=2018). The NOAA SST data set is available (https://www. esrl. noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data. noaa.ersst.v4.html). The GPCP precipitation data are available (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.gpcp.html). The NAO index is available (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml). The Oceanic Niño Index is available (https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php). The authors thank Dr. Suzana Camargo, Dr. Phil Klotzbach, and an anonymous reviewer for their important suggestions for improving the manuscript. This study was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41705060, 41420104002, 41730961, 41675072, and 41605032), the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (BK20170941 and BK20171095), and the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFA0600401). This is the ESMC publication number 288, and the IPRC publication number 1415. The NCEP reanalysis data are available ( https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/reanalysis/reanalysis.shtml ). The best track data from the JTWC are available ( http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfcph/RSS/jtwc/best_tracks ). The NHC best track data are available ( https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/ ). The 2018 best track data are available ( http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/season.asp?storm_season=2018 ). The NOAA SST data set is available (https://www. esrl. noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data . noaa.ersst.v4.html). The GPCP precipitation data are available ( https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.gpcp.html ). The NAO index is available ( https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml ). The Oceanic Niño Index is available ( https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php ).

Keywords

North Pacific subtropical high
Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season
subtropical sea surface warming
tropical cyclone genesis

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10.1029/2019GL085406

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title = "Unprecedented Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Genesis in 2018 Shaped by Subtropical Warming in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic",

abstract = "Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone (TC) genesis (TCG) frequency in June-September of 2018 reached a record high since 1965. This unprecedented TCG was mainly driven by the North Pacific (NP) and the subtropical North Atlantic (NA). TCs in the western North Pacific (WNP) predominately took a northward-recurving track, resulting in the highest number of named storm days in the subtropical WNP on record. TCs in the eastern North Pacific propagated anomalously westward with three Category 4–5 hurricanes reaching the central North Pacific. The unprecedented TCG in the NP was caused by a persistent weakening of the NP subtropical high that was tightly coupled with the subtropical NP sea surface temperature (SST) warming. In the NA, enhanced TCG was mainly found in the subtropics owing to a favorable large-scale environment forced by subtropical SST warming. The result here has important implications for understanding variability in TC activity on the hemisphere-scale.",

keywords = "North Pacific subtropical high, Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season, subtropical sea surface warming, tropical cyclone genesis",

author = "Chao Wang and Bin Wang and Jian Cao",

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doi = "10.1029/2019GL085406",

language = "English",

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journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",

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N2 - Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone (TC) genesis (TCG) frequency in June-September of 2018 reached a record high since 1965. This unprecedented TCG was mainly driven by the North Pacific (NP) and the subtropical North Atlantic (NA). TCs in the western North Pacific (WNP) predominately took a northward-recurving track, resulting in the highest number of named storm days in the subtropical WNP on record. TCs in the eastern North Pacific propagated anomalously westward with three Category 4–5 hurricanes reaching the central North Pacific. The unprecedented TCG in the NP was caused by a persistent weakening of the NP subtropical high that was tightly coupled with the subtropical NP sea surface temperature (SST) warming. In the NA, enhanced TCG was mainly found in the subtropics owing to a favorable large-scale environment forced by subtropical SST warming. The result here has important implications for understanding variability in TC activity on the hemisphere-scale.

AB - Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone (TC) genesis (TCG) frequency in June-September of 2018 reached a record high since 1965. This unprecedented TCG was mainly driven by the North Pacific (NP) and the subtropical North Atlantic (NA). TCs in the western North Pacific (WNP) predominately took a northward-recurving track, resulting in the highest number of named storm days in the subtropical WNP on record. TCs in the eastern North Pacific propagated anomalously westward with three Category 4–5 hurricanes reaching the central North Pacific. The unprecedented TCG in the NP was caused by a persistent weakening of the NP subtropical high that was tightly coupled with the subtropical NP sea surface temperature (SST) warming. In the NA, enhanced TCG was mainly found in the subtropics owing to a favorable large-scale environment forced by subtropical SST warming. The result here has important implications for understanding variability in TC activity on the hemisphere-scale.

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KW - subtropical sea surface warming

KW - tropical cyclone genesis

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Unprecedented Northern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Genesis in 2018 Shaped by Subtropical Warming in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic

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Keywords

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