Uncertainty propagation through a simulation of industrial high pressure die casting

While numerical models are often used in industry to evaluate the transport phenomena in solidification processes, the uncertainty in the results propagated from uncertain input parameters is rarely considered. In this work, in order to investigate the effects of input uncertainty on the outputs of high pressure die casting (HPDC) simulations, the Center for Prediction of Reliability, Integrity, and Survivability of Microsystems (PRISM) uncertainty quantification (PUQ) framework was applied. Three uncertainty propagation trials investigate the impact of uncertainty in metal material properties, thermal boundary conditions, and a modeling parameter on outputs of interest, such as fraction liquid at different times in the process cycle and shrinkage porosity volume, in an industrial A380 aluminum alloy HPDC process. This quantification of the output uncertainty establishes the reliability of the simulation results and can inform process design choices, such as the determination of the part ejection time. The results are most sensitive to the uncertainty in the interfacial heat transfer (for both outputs of interest) and the feeding effectivity (FE) (a model parameter controlling porosity formation determination), while the other heat transfer boundary conditions, model parameters, and all the properties play a secondary role in output uncertainty.