Uncertainty analyses of spent nuclear fuel decay heat calculations using SCALE modules

Decay heat residuals of spent nuclear fuel (SNF), i.e., the differences between calculations and measurements, were obtained previously for various spent fuel assemblies (SFA) using the Polaris module of the SCALE code system. In this paper, we compare decay heat residuals to their uncertainties, focusing on four PWRs and four BWRs. Uncertainties in nuclear data and model inputs are propagated stochastically through calculations using the SCALE/Sampler super-sequence. Total uncertainties could not explain the residuals of two SFAs measured at GE-Morris. The combined z-scores for all SFAs measured at the Clab facility could explain the resulting deviations. Nuclear-data-related uncertainties contribute more in the high burnup SFAs. Design and operational uncertainties tend to contribute more to the total uncertainties. Assembly burnup is a relevant variable as it correlates significantly with the SNF decay heat. Additionally, burnup uncertainty is a major contributor to decay heat uncertainty, and assumptions relating to these uncertainties are crucial. Propagation of nuclear data and design and operational uncertainties shows that the analyzed assemblies respond similarly with high correlation. The calculated decay heats are highly correlated in the PWRs and BWRs, whereas lower correlations were observed between decay heats of SFAs that differ in their burnups.