Uncertainties in simulated El Niño–Southern Oscillation arising from internal climate variability

Chao Sun; Li Liu; Li Juan Li; Bin Wang; Cheng Zhang; Qun Liu; Rui Zhe Li

doi:10.1002/asl.805

Uncertainties in simulated El Niño–Southern Oscillation arising from internal climate variability

Chao Sun
, Li Liu
, Li Juan Li
, Bin Wang
, Cheng Zhang
, Qun Liu
, Rui Zhe Li

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

5 Scopus citations

Abstract

Significant uncertainties exist in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) simulations. To investigate the source of these uncertainties, previous studies have primarily focused on the model itself; however, internal climate variability (ICV) as a source of uncertainty has not been sufficiently explored to date. Using the Community Earth System Model–Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM–LME) modeling project and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), an investigation into uncertainties in simulated ENSO arising from ICV is performed. Results show that external forcing can significantly increase the uncertainties arising from ICV when the simulation length is greater than ~40 years. In addition, the spread in ENSO amplitude arising from ICV accounts for 50% of the total spread within the CMIP5 historical simulations. Finally, the impact of ICV on ENSO varies considerably with simulation length and stabilizes at the threshold of 300–400 years.

Original language	English
Article number	e805
Journal	Atmospheric Science Letters
Volume	19
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.805
State	Published - Mar 2018
Externally published	Yes

Funding

This work was jointly supported in part by the National Grand Fundamental Research 973 Program of China (grant no. 2014CB441302), the National Key Research Project (grant no. 2016YFB0200805), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos. 41622503 and 41775101). We acknowledge the CESM1 (CAM5) Last Millennium Ensemble Community Project and supercomputing resources provided by NSF/CISL/Yellowstone for data availability.

Keywords

CMIP
ENSO simulation
external forcing
internal climate variability

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10.1002/asl.805

Cite this

@article{b33a74d278764164a6af8ccaad21ee98,

title = "Uncertainties in simulated El Ni{\~n}o–Southern Oscillation arising from internal climate variability",

abstract = "Significant uncertainties exist in El Ni{\~n}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) simulations. To investigate the source of these uncertainties, previous studies have primarily focused on the model itself; however, internal climate variability (ICV) as a source of uncertainty has not been sufficiently explored to date. Using the Community Earth System Model–Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM–LME) modeling project and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), an investigation into uncertainties in simulated ENSO arising from ICV is performed. Results show that external forcing can significantly increase the uncertainties arising from ICV when the simulation length is greater than \textasciitilde{}40 years. In addition, the spread in ENSO amplitude arising from ICV accounts for 50\% of the total spread within the CMIP5 historical simulations. Finally, the impact of ICV on ENSO varies considerably with simulation length and stabilizes at the threshold of 300–400 years.",

keywords = "CMIP, ENSO simulation, external forcing, internal climate variability",

author = "Chao Sun and Li Liu and Li, \{Li Juan\} and Bin Wang and Cheng Zhang and Qun Liu and Li, \{Rui Zhe\}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2018 The Authors. Atmospheric Science Letters published by John Wiley \& Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society.",

year = "2018",

month = mar,

doi = "10.1002/asl.805",

language = "English",

volume = "19",

journal = "Atmospheric Science Letters",

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publisher = "wiley",

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T1 - Uncertainties in simulated El Niño–Southern Oscillation arising from internal climate variability

AU - Sun, Chao

AU - Liu, Li

AU - Li, Li Juan

AU - Wang, Bin

AU - Zhang, Cheng

AU - Liu, Qun

AU - Li, Rui Zhe

PY - 2018/3

Y1 - 2018/3

N2 - Significant uncertainties exist in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) simulations. To investigate the source of these uncertainties, previous studies have primarily focused on the model itself; however, internal climate variability (ICV) as a source of uncertainty has not been sufficiently explored to date. Using the Community Earth System Model–Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM–LME) modeling project and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), an investigation into uncertainties in simulated ENSO arising from ICV is performed. Results show that external forcing can significantly increase the uncertainties arising from ICV when the simulation length is greater than ~40 years. In addition, the spread in ENSO amplitude arising from ICV accounts for 50% of the total spread within the CMIP5 historical simulations. Finally, the impact of ICV on ENSO varies considerably with simulation length and stabilizes at the threshold of 300–400 years.

AB - Significant uncertainties exist in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) simulations. To investigate the source of these uncertainties, previous studies have primarily focused on the model itself; however, internal climate variability (ICV) as a source of uncertainty has not been sufficiently explored to date. Using the Community Earth System Model–Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM–LME) modeling project and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), an investigation into uncertainties in simulated ENSO arising from ICV is performed. Results show that external forcing can significantly increase the uncertainties arising from ICV when the simulation length is greater than ~40 years. In addition, the spread in ENSO amplitude arising from ICV accounts for 50% of the total spread within the CMIP5 historical simulations. Finally, the impact of ICV on ENSO varies considerably with simulation length and stabilizes at the threshold of 300–400 years.

KW - CMIP

KW - ENSO simulation

KW - external forcing

KW - internal climate variability

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85044400433

U2 - 10.1002/asl.805

DO - 10.1002/asl.805

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VL - 19

JO - Atmospheric Science Letters

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IS - 3

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ER -

Uncertainties in simulated El Niño–Southern Oscillation arising from internal climate variability

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Keywords

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