Abstract
Transportation is currently the largest source of U.S. anthropogenic CO2 emissions, at about a third of the total. Achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century will require substantial reductions in transportation emissions across passenger and freight travel. Here we leverage a model intercomparison study to explore the role of transportation in scenarios achieving net-zero economy-wide CO2 emissions by 2050. We find the transport sector is poised to play the most significant role in reducing demand-side emissions, mostly driven by technology substitution, as modeling results suggest a limited role for mode shifting and for reduced use of personal car travel in the U.S. Among various technology solutions, models show agreement that passenger on-road vehicles will largely transition to electric vehicles (EVs), while solutions to decarbonize heavier travel modes are more diverse and include greater use of liquid biofuels and hydrogen. Research should continue to investigate the evolution of on-road electrification, the role of biofuels and hydrogen across heavier travel modes, and the role of mode shifting and travel behavior change to support personal transportation decarbonization at national and regional scales to temper the rapid growth in clean fuel and electricity demand.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 100211 |
| Journal | Energy and Climate Change |
| Volume | 6 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Dec 2025 |
Funding
The views expressed in this paper are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily reflect those of their respective institutions including but not limited to Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Energy (DOE), the U.S. Government, or EPRI. The U.S. Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the U.S. Government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this work, or allow others to do so, for U.S. Government purposes. This work was authored in part by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory for the DOE under Contract No. DE-AC36–08GO28308. This work was funded by the National Energy Technology Laboratory, in part, through a site support contract. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of its employees, nor the support contractor, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. The authors would like to acknowledge the support of the EMF-37 modeling teams for data submission and contributions to modeling surveys that made this work possible. The views expressed in this paper are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily reflect those of their respective institutions including but not limited to Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Energy (DOE), the U.S. Government, or EPRI. The U.S. Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the U.S. Government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this work, or allow others to do so, for U.S. Government purposes. This work was authored in part by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory for the DOE under Contract No. DE-AC36–08GO28308. This work was funded by the National Energy Technology Laboratory, in part, through a site support contract. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of its employees, nor the support contractor, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof.
Keywords
- Climate change
- Deep decarbonization
- Electrification
- Energy systems
- Model comparison
- Transportation