The influence of natural variability on extreme monsoons in Pakistan

Moetasim Ashfaq; Nathaniel Johnson; Fred Kucharski; Noah S. Diffenbaugh; Muhammad Adnan Abid; Matthew F. Horan; Deepti Singh; Salil Mahajan; Subimal Ghosh; Auroop R. Ganguly; Katherine J. Evans; Shafiqul Islam

doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00462-8

The influence of natural variability on extreme monsoons in Pakistan

Moetasim Ashfaq, Nathaniel Johnson, Fred Kucharski, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Muhammad Adnan Abid, Matthew F. Horan, Deepti Singh, Salil Mahajan, Subimal Ghosh, Auroop R. Ganguly, Katherine J. Evans, Shafiqul Islam

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

6 Scopus citations

Abstract

The monsoons in Pakistan have been exceptionally harsh in recent decades, resulting in extraordinary drought conditions and record flooding events. The changing characteristics of extreme events are widely attributed to climate change. However, given this region’s long history of floods and droughts, the role of natural climate variability cannot be rejected without a careful diagnosis. Here, we examine how oceanic and atmospheric variability has contributed to unusual precipitation distributions in West South Asia. Variations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and northern Arabian Sea, and internal atmospheric variability related to the circumglobal teleconnection pattern and the subtropical westerly jet stream, explain more than 70% of monthly summer precipitation variability in the 21st century. Several of these forcings have co-occurred with record strength during episodes of extreme monsoons, which have exacerbated the overall effect. Climate change may have contributed to increased variability and the in-phase co-occurrences of the identified mechanisms, but further research is required to confirm any such connection.

Original language	English
Article number	148
Journal	npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Volume	6
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00462-8
State	Published - Dec 2023

Funding

This work is supported by the U.S. Air Force Numerical Weather Modeling Program and National Climate‐Computing Research Center, located within the National Center for Computational Sciences at the ORNL, and supported under a Strategic Partnership Project 2316‐T849‐08 between DOE and NOAA. This research used the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility resources, a DOE Office of Science User Facility supported under Contract DE-AC05-00OR22725. M.A., S.M., and K.J.E. are employees of UT-Battelle LLC under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the US DOE. Accordingly, the US government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the US government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript or allow others to do so, for US Government purposes.

Funders	Funder number
U.S. Department of Energy
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Office of Science	DE-AC05-00OR22725
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
U.S. Air Force
UT-Battelle

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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title = "The influence of natural variability on extreme monsoons in Pakistan",

abstract = "The monsoons in Pakistan have been exceptionally harsh in recent decades, resulting in extraordinary drought conditions and record flooding events. The changing characteristics of extreme events are widely attributed to climate change. However, given this region{\textquoteright}s long history of floods and droughts, the role of natural climate variability cannot be rejected without a careful diagnosis. Here, we examine how oceanic and atmospheric variability has contributed to unusual precipitation distributions in West South Asia. Variations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and northern Arabian Sea, and internal atmospheric variability related to the circumglobal teleconnection pattern and the subtropical westerly jet stream, explain more than 70% of monthly summer precipitation variability in the 21st century. Several of these forcings have co-occurred with record strength during episodes of extreme monsoons, which have exacerbated the overall effect. Climate change may have contributed to increased variability and the in-phase co-occurrences of the identified mechanisms, but further research is required to confirm any such connection.",

author = "Moetasim Ashfaq and Nathaniel Johnson and Fred Kucharski and Diffenbaugh, {Noah S.} and Abid, {Muhammad Adnan} and Horan, {Matthew F.} and Deepti Singh and Salil Mahajan and Subimal Ghosh and Ganguly, {Auroop R.} and Evans, {Katherine J.} and Shafiqul Islam",

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AU - Kucharski, Fred

AU - Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

AU - Abid, Muhammad Adnan

AU - Horan, Matthew F.

AU - Singh, Deepti

AU - Mahajan, Salil

AU - Ghosh, Subimal

AU - Ganguly, Auroop R.

AU - Evans, Katherine J.

AU - Islam, Shafiqul

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The influence of natural variability on extreme monsoons in Pakistan

Abstract

Funding

UN SDGs

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