The importance of establishing and maintaining continuity of knowledge during 21st century nuclear fuel cycle activities

During this century, the entire nuclear fuel cycle will expand and become increasingly more global, taxing both the resources and capabilities of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to maintain an effective Continuity of Knowledge (CoK) and its ability to provide timely detection of diversion. Uranium that currently is mined and milled in one country will be converted, enriched, and fabricated into fuel for reactors in an expanding set of new countries. This expansion will make it harder to guarantee that regional activities stay regional and that diversion detection is timely unless new and sustainable tools are developed to improve inspector effectiveness. To deal with this emerging reality, the IAEA must increase its use of unattended monitoring and employ new tools and methods that enhance CoK during all phases of the fuel cycle. This approach will help provide useful information to aid in detecting undeclared activities and create opportunities for timely and appropriate responses to events well before they enter phases of greater concern (e.g., enrichment). The systems that maintain CoK of safeguarded assets rely on containment and surveillance (C/S) technologies. The 21st century fuel cycle will require increased use of these technologies and systems, plus greater implementation of unattended systems that can securely collect data when inspectors are not present. This paper will describe the aspects and some of the capabilities that will be needed to address the expanding global fuel cycle to ensure that verifiable CoK of fuel cycle materials and activities can be established, maintained, and sustained.