Abstract
We are conducting a large-scale, long-term climate change response experiment in an ombrotrophic peat bog in Minnesota to evaluate the effects of warming and elevated CO2 on ecosystem processes using empirical and modeling approaches. To better frame future assessments of peatland responses to climate change, we characterized and compared spatial vs. temporal variation in measured C cycle processes and their environmental drivers. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis of a peatland C model to identify how variation in ecosystem parameters contributes to model prediction uncertainty. High spatial variability in C cycle processes resulted in the inability to determine if the bog was a C source or sink, as the 95% confidence interval ranged from a source of 50 g C m-2 yr-1 to a sink of 67 g C m-2 yr-1. Model sensitivity analysis also identified that spatial variation in tree and shrub photosynthesis, allocation characteristics, and maintenance respiration all contributed to large variations in the pretreatment estimates of net C balance. Variation in ecosystem processes can be more thoroughly characterized if more measurements are collected for parameters that are highly variable over space and time, and especially if those measurements encompass environmental gradients that may be driving the spatial and temporal variation (e.g., hummock vs. hollow microtopographies, and wet vs. dry years). Together, the coupled modeling and empirical approaches indicate that variability in C cycle processes and their drivers must be taken into account when interpreting the significance of experimental warming and elevated CO2 treatments.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 1668-1688 |
Number of pages | 21 |
Journal | Soil Science Society of America Journal |
Volume | 81 |
Issue number | 6 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - Nov 1 2017 |
Funding
This material is based on work supported by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is managed by UT-Battelle, LLC, for the US Department of Energy under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725. The SPRUCE experiment is a collaborative research effort between ORNL and the USDA Forest Service. The participation of SDS in SPRUCE efforts was funded by the Northern Research Station of the USDA Forest Service. A portion of this work was performed under the auspices of the US Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. We thank Deanne Brice, Joanne Childs, John Latimer, W. Robert Nettles III, Keith Oleheiser, Todd Ontl, Jana Phillips, and Holly Vander Stel for help with sample collection and processing. Comments by Jiafu Mao and three anonymous reviewers greatly improved this manuscript.