Techno-economic and uncertainty analysis of in situ and ex situ fast pyrolysis for biofuel production

Boyan Li; Longwen Ou; Qi Dang; Pimphan Meyer; Susanne Jones; Robert Brown; Mark Wright

doi:10.1016/j.biortech.2015.07.073

Techno-economic and uncertainty analysis of in situ and ex situ fast pyrolysis for biofuel production

Boyan Li
, Longwen Ou
, Qi Dang
, Pimphan Meyer
, Susanne Jones
, Robert Brown
, Mark Wright

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

81 Scopus citations

Abstract

This study evaluates the techno-economic uncertainty in cost estimates for two emerging technologies for biofuel production: in situ and ex situ catalytic pyrolysis. The probability distributions for the minimum fuel-selling price (MFSP) indicate that in situ catalytic pyrolysis has an expected MFSP of $1.11 per liter with a standard deviation of 0.29, while the ex situ catalytic pyrolysis has a similar MFSP with a smaller deviation ($1.13 per liter and 0.21 respectively). These results suggest that a biorefinery based on ex situ catalytic pyrolysis could have a lower techno-economic uncertainty than in situ pyrolysis compensating for a slightly higher MFSP cost estimate. Analysis of how each parameter affects the NPV indicates that internal rate of return, feedstock price, total project investment, electricity price, biochar yield and bio-oil yield are parameters which have substantial impact on the MFSP for both in situ and ex situ catalytic pyrolysis.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	49-56
Number of pages	8
Journal	Bioresource Technology
Volume	196
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biortech.2015.07.073
State	Published - Nov 1 2015
Externally published	Yes

Funding

This project was made possible by support from the US Department of Energy and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory through Contract Number 167288 . The authors would like to acknowledge Rajeeva Thilakaratne for developing the baseline process models.

Keywords

Ex situ
In situ
Pyrolysis
Techno-economics analysis
Uncertainty analysis

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10.1016/j.biortech.2015.07.073

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title = "Techno-economic and uncertainty analysis of in situ and ex situ fast pyrolysis for biofuel production",

abstract = "This study evaluates the techno-economic uncertainty in cost estimates for two emerging technologies for biofuel production: in situ and ex situ catalytic pyrolysis. The probability distributions for the minimum fuel-selling price (MFSP) indicate that in situ catalytic pyrolysis has an expected MFSP of \$1.11 per liter with a standard deviation of 0.29, while the ex situ catalytic pyrolysis has a similar MFSP with a smaller deviation (\$1.13 per liter and 0.21 respectively). These results suggest that a biorefinery based on ex situ catalytic pyrolysis could have a lower techno-economic uncertainty than in situ pyrolysis compensating for a slightly higher MFSP cost estimate. Analysis of how each parameter affects the NPV indicates that internal rate of return, feedstock price, total project investment, electricity price, biochar yield and bio-oil yield are parameters which have substantial impact on the MFSP for both in situ and ex situ catalytic pyrolysis.",

keywords = "Ex situ, In situ, Pyrolysis, Techno-economics analysis, Uncertainty analysis",

author = "Boyan Li and Longwen Ou and Qi Dang and Pimphan Meyer and Susanne Jones and Robert Brown and Mark Wright",

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AU - Li, Boyan

AU - Ou, Longwen

AU - Dang, Qi

AU - Meyer, Pimphan

AU - Jones, Susanne

AU - Brown, Robert

AU - Wright, Mark

PY - 2015/11/1

Y1 - 2015/11/1

N2 - This study evaluates the techno-economic uncertainty in cost estimates for two emerging technologies for biofuel production: in situ and ex situ catalytic pyrolysis. The probability distributions for the minimum fuel-selling price (MFSP) indicate that in situ catalytic pyrolysis has an expected MFSP of $1.11 per liter with a standard deviation of 0.29, while the ex situ catalytic pyrolysis has a similar MFSP with a smaller deviation ($1.13 per liter and 0.21 respectively). These results suggest that a biorefinery based on ex situ catalytic pyrolysis could have a lower techno-economic uncertainty than in situ pyrolysis compensating for a slightly higher MFSP cost estimate. Analysis of how each parameter affects the NPV indicates that internal rate of return, feedstock price, total project investment, electricity price, biochar yield and bio-oil yield are parameters which have substantial impact on the MFSP for both in situ and ex situ catalytic pyrolysis.

AB - This study evaluates the techno-economic uncertainty in cost estimates for two emerging technologies for biofuel production: in situ and ex situ catalytic pyrolysis. The probability distributions for the minimum fuel-selling price (MFSP) indicate that in situ catalytic pyrolysis has an expected MFSP of $1.11 per liter with a standard deviation of 0.29, while the ex situ catalytic pyrolysis has a similar MFSP with a smaller deviation ($1.13 per liter and 0.21 respectively). These results suggest that a biorefinery based on ex situ catalytic pyrolysis could have a lower techno-economic uncertainty than in situ pyrolysis compensating for a slightly higher MFSP cost estimate. Analysis of how each parameter affects the NPV indicates that internal rate of return, feedstock price, total project investment, electricity price, biochar yield and bio-oil yield are parameters which have substantial impact on the MFSP for both in situ and ex situ catalytic pyrolysis.

KW - Ex situ

KW - In situ

KW - Pyrolysis

KW - Techno-economics analysis

KW - Uncertainty analysis

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SN - 0960-8524

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SP - 49

EP - 56

JO - Bioresource Technology

JF - Bioresource Technology

ER -

Techno-economic and uncertainty analysis of in situ and ex situ fast pyrolysis for biofuel production

Abstract

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Keywords

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