Techno-economic and uncertainty analysis of in situ and ex situ fast pyrolysis for biofuel production

Boyan Li; Longwen Ou; Qi Dang; Pimphan Meyer; Susanne Jones; Robert Brown; Mark Wright

doi:10.1016/j.biortech.2015.07.073

Techno-economic and uncertainty analysis of in situ and ex situ fast pyrolysis for biofuel production

Boyan Li, Longwen Ou, Qi Dang, Pimphan Meyer, Susanne Jones, Robert Brown, Mark Wright

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

73 Scopus citations

Abstract

This study evaluates the techno-economic uncertainty in cost estimates for two emerging technologies for biofuel production: in situ and ex situ catalytic pyrolysis. The probability distributions for the minimum fuel-selling price (MFSP) indicate that in situ catalytic pyrolysis has an expected MFSP of $1.11 per liter with a standard deviation of 0.29, while the ex situ catalytic pyrolysis has a similar MFSP with a smaller deviation ($1.13 per liter and 0.21 respectively). These results suggest that a biorefinery based on ex situ catalytic pyrolysis could have a lower techno-economic uncertainty than in situ pyrolysis compensating for a slightly higher MFSP cost estimate. Analysis of how each parameter affects the NPV indicates that internal rate of return, feedstock price, total project investment, electricity price, biochar yield and bio-oil yield are parameters which have substantial impact on the MFSP for both in situ and ex situ catalytic pyrolysis.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	49-56
Number of pages	8
Journal	Bioresource Technology
Volume	196
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biortech.2015.07.073
State	Published - Nov 1 2015
Externally published	Yes

Funding

This project was made possible by support from the US Department of Energy and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory through Contract Number 167288 . The authors would like to acknowledge Rajeeva Thilakaratne for developing the baseline process models.

Keywords

Ex situ
In situ
Pyrolysis
Techno-economics analysis
Uncertainty analysis

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10.1016/j.biortech.2015.07.073

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title = "Techno-economic and uncertainty analysis of in situ and ex situ fast pyrolysis for biofuel production",

abstract = "This study evaluates the techno-economic uncertainty in cost estimates for two emerging technologies for biofuel production: in situ and ex situ catalytic pyrolysis. The probability distributions for the minimum fuel-selling price (MFSP) indicate that in situ catalytic pyrolysis has an expected MFSP of $1.11 per liter with a standard deviation of 0.29, while the ex situ catalytic pyrolysis has a similar MFSP with a smaller deviation ($1.13 per liter and 0.21 respectively). These results suggest that a biorefinery based on ex situ catalytic pyrolysis could have a lower techno-economic uncertainty than in situ pyrolysis compensating for a slightly higher MFSP cost estimate. Analysis of how each parameter affects the NPV indicates that internal rate of return, feedstock price, total project investment, electricity price, biochar yield and bio-oil yield are parameters which have substantial impact on the MFSP for both in situ and ex situ catalytic pyrolysis.",

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author = "Boyan Li and Longwen Ou and Qi Dang and Pimphan Meyer and Susanne Jones and Robert Brown and Mark Wright",

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AU - Li, Boyan

AU - Ou, Longwen

AU - Dang, Qi

AU - Meyer, Pimphan

AU - Jones, Susanne

AU - Brown, Robert

AU - Wright, Mark

PY - 2015/11/1

Y1 - 2015/11/1

N2 - This study evaluates the techno-economic uncertainty in cost estimates for two emerging technologies for biofuel production: in situ and ex situ catalytic pyrolysis. The probability distributions for the minimum fuel-selling price (MFSP) indicate that in situ catalytic pyrolysis has an expected MFSP of $1.11 per liter with a standard deviation of 0.29, while the ex situ catalytic pyrolysis has a similar MFSP with a smaller deviation ($1.13 per liter and 0.21 respectively). These results suggest that a biorefinery based on ex situ catalytic pyrolysis could have a lower techno-economic uncertainty than in situ pyrolysis compensating for a slightly higher MFSP cost estimate. Analysis of how each parameter affects the NPV indicates that internal rate of return, feedstock price, total project investment, electricity price, biochar yield and bio-oil yield are parameters which have substantial impact on the MFSP for both in situ and ex situ catalytic pyrolysis.

AB - This study evaluates the techno-economic uncertainty in cost estimates for two emerging technologies for biofuel production: in situ and ex situ catalytic pyrolysis. The probability distributions for the minimum fuel-selling price (MFSP) indicate that in situ catalytic pyrolysis has an expected MFSP of $1.11 per liter with a standard deviation of 0.29, while the ex situ catalytic pyrolysis has a similar MFSP with a smaller deviation ($1.13 per liter and 0.21 respectively). These results suggest that a biorefinery based on ex situ catalytic pyrolysis could have a lower techno-economic uncertainty than in situ pyrolysis compensating for a slightly higher MFSP cost estimate. Analysis of how each parameter affects the NPV indicates that internal rate of return, feedstock price, total project investment, electricity price, biochar yield and bio-oil yield are parameters which have substantial impact on the MFSP for both in situ and ex situ catalytic pyrolysis.

KW - Ex situ

KW - In situ

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KW - Techno-economics analysis

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ER -

Techno-economic and uncertainty analysis of in situ and ex situ fast pyrolysis for biofuel production

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Keywords

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