Taking climate model evaluation to the next level

Veronika Eyring; Peter M. Cox; Gregory M. Flato; Peter J. Gleckler; Gab Abramowitz; Peter Caldwell; William D. Collins; Bettina K. Gier; Alex D. Hall; Forrest M. Hoffman; George C. Hurtt; Alexandra Jahn; Chris D. Jones; Stephen A. Klein; John P. Krasting; Lester Kwiatkowski; Ruth Lorenz; Eric Maloney; Gerald A. Meehl; Angeline G. Pendergrass; Robert Pincus; Alex C. Ruane; Joellen L. Russell; Benjamin M. Sanderson; Benjamin D. Santer; Steven C. Sherwood; Isla R. Simpson; Ronald J. Stouffer; Mark S. Williamson

doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y

Taking climate model evaluation to the next level

Veronika Eyring, Peter M. Cox, Gregory M. Flato, Peter J. Gleckler, Gab Abramowitz, Peter Caldwell, William D. Collins, Bettina K. Gier, Alex D. Hall, Forrest M. Hoffman, George C. Hurtt, Alexandra Jahn, Chris D. Jones, Stephen A. Klein, John P. Krasting, Lester Kwiatkowski, Ruth Lorenz, Eric Maloney, Gerald A. Meehl, Angeline G. PendergrassRobert Pincus, Alex C. Ruane, Joellen L. Russell, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Benjamin D. Santer, Steven C. Sherwood, Isla R. Simpson, Ronald J. Stouffer, Mark S. Williamson

Computational Earth Sciences Group

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

485 Scopus citations

Abstract

Earth system models are complex and represent a large number of processes, resulting in a persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different model performances against observations and the lack of independence among models, there is now evidence that giving equal weight to each available model projection is suboptimal. This Perspective discusses newly developed tools that facilitate a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of model simulations with observations, process-based emergent constraints that are a promising way to focus evaluation on the observations most relevant to climate projections, and advanced methods for model weighting. These approaches are needed to distil the most credible information on regional climate changes, impacts, and risks for stakeholders and policy-makers.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	102-110
Number of pages	9
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	9
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y
State	Published - Feb 1 2019

Funding

The authors acknowledge the Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) for hosting a workshop on Earth System Model Evaluation to Improve Process Understanding in August 2017 as part of its traditionally landmark summer interdisciplinary sessions (http://www.agci.org/event/17s2). NASA, the Heising-Simons Foundation, Horizon 2020 European Union’s Framework Programme for Research and Innovation under Grant Agreement No 641816, the Coordinated Research in Earth Systems and Climate: Experiments, kNowledge, Dissemination and Outreach (CRESCENDO) project, the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) Climate Model User Group (CMUG), WCRP and the Department of Energy (DOE) all provided support for the workshop. The viewpoint presented here substantially draws on conclusions from that workshop. Portions of this study were supported by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the US DOE Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER) Cooperative Agreement DE-FC02-97ER62402 and Contract No. DE-AC05-00OR22725 and the National Science Foundation. NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

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Eyring, V., Cox, P. M., Flato, G. M., Gleckler, P. J., Abramowitz, G., Caldwell, P., Collins, W. D., Gier, B. K., Hall, A. D., Hoffman, F. M., Hurtt, G. C., Jahn, A., Jones, C. D., Klein, S. A., Krasting, J. P., Kwiatkowski, L., Lorenz, R., Maloney, E., Meehl, G. A., ... Williamson, M. S. (2019). Taking climate model evaluation to the next level. Nature Climate Change, 9(2), 102-110. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y

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abstract = "Earth system models are complex and represent a large number of processes, resulting in a persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different model performances against observations and the lack of independence among models, there is now evidence that giving equal weight to each available model projection is suboptimal. This Perspective discusses newly developed tools that facilitate a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of model simulations with observations, process-based emergent constraints that are a promising way to focus evaluation on the observations most relevant to climate projections, and advanced methods for model weighting. These approaches are needed to distil the most credible information on regional climate changes, impacts, and risks for stakeholders and policy-makers.",

author = "Veronika Eyring and Cox, {Peter M.} and Flato, {Gregory M.} and Gleckler, {Peter J.} and Gab Abramowitz and Peter Caldwell and Collins, {William D.} and Gier, {Bettina K.} and Hall, {Alex D.} and Hoffman, {Forrest M.} and Hurtt, {George C.} and Alexandra Jahn and Jones, {Chris D.} and Klein, {Stephen A.} and Krasting, {John P.} and Lester Kwiatkowski and Ruth Lorenz and Eric Maloney and Meehl, {Gerald A.} and Pendergrass, {Angeline G.} and Robert Pincus and Ruane, {Alex C.} and Russell, {Joellen L.} and Sanderson, {Benjamin M.} and Santer, {Benjamin D.} and Sherwood, {Steven C.} and Simpson, {Isla R.} and Stouffer, {Ronald J.} and Williamson, {Mark S.}",

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Eyring, V, Cox, PM, Flato, GM, Gleckler, PJ, Abramowitz, G, Caldwell, P, Collins, WD, Gier, BK, Hall, AD, Hoffman, FM, Hurtt, GC, Jahn, A, Jones, CD, Klein, SA, Krasting, JP, Kwiatkowski, L, Lorenz, R, Maloney, E, Meehl, GA, Pendergrass, AG, Pincus, R, Ruane, AC, Russell, JL, Sanderson, BM, Santer, BD, Sherwood, SC, Simpson, IR, Stouffer, RJ & Williamson, MS 2019, 'Taking climate model evaluation to the next level', Nature Climate Change, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 102-110. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y

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AU - Williamson, Mark S.

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Taking climate model evaluation to the next level

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