Synthesis of the land carbon fluxes of the Amazon region between 2010 and 2020

Thais M. Rosan; Stephen Sitch; Michael O’Sullivan; Luana S. Basso; Chris Wilson; Camila Silva; Emanuel Gloor; Dominic Fawcett; Viola Heinrich; Jefferson G. Souza; Francisco Gilney Silva Bezerra; Celso von Randow; Lina M. Mercado; Luciana Gatti; Andy Wiltshire; Pierre Friedlingstein; Julia Pongratz; Clemens Schwingshackl; Mathew Williams; Luke Smallman; Jürgen Knauer; Vivek Arora; Daniel Kennedy; Hanqin Tian; Wenping Yuan; Atul K. Jain; Stefanie Falk; Benjamin Poulter; Almut Arneth; Qing Sun; Sönke Zaehle; Anthony P. Walker; Etsushi Kato; Xu Yue; Ana Bastos; Philippe Ciais; Jean Pierre Wigneron; Clement Albergel; Luiz E.O.C. Aragão

doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01205-0

Synthesis of the land carbon fluxes of the Amazon region between 2010 and 2020

Thais M. Rosan, Stephen Sitch, Michael O’Sullivan, Luana S. Basso, Chris Wilson, Camila Silva, Emanuel Gloor, Dominic Fawcett, Viola Heinrich, Jefferson G. Souza, Francisco Gilney Silva Bezerra, Celso von Randow, Lina M. Mercado, Luciana Gatti, Andy Wiltshire, Pierre Friedlingstein, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Mathew Williams, Luke SmallmanJürgen Knauer, Vivek Arora, Daniel Kennedy, Hanqin Tian, Wenping Yuan, Atul K. Jain, Stefanie Falk, Benjamin Poulter, Almut Arneth, Qing Sun, Sönke Zaehle, Anthony P. Walker, Etsushi Kato, Xu Yue, Ana Bastos, Philippe Ciais, Jean Pierre Wigneron, Clement Albergel, Luiz E.O.C. Aragão

Ecosystem Processes

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15 Scopus citations

Abstract

The Amazon is the largest continuous tropical forest in the world and plays a key role in the global carbon cycle. Human-induced disturbances and climate change have impacted the Amazon carbon balance. Here we conduct a comprehensive synthesis of existing state-of-the-art estimates of the contemporary land carbon fluxes in the Amazon using a set of bottom-up methods (i.e., dynamic vegetation models and bookkeeping models) and a top-down inversion (atmospheric inversion model) over the Brazilian Amazon and the whole Biogeographical Amazon domain. Over the whole biogeographical Amazon region bottom-up methodologies suggest a small average carbon sink over 2010-2020, in contrast to a small carbon source simulated by top-down inversion (2010-2018). However, these estimates are not significantly different from one another when accounting for their large individual uncertainties, highlighting remaining knowledge gaps, and the urgent need to reduce such uncertainties. Nevertheless, both methodologies agreed that the Brazilian Amazon has been a net carbon source during recent climate extremes and that the south-eastern Amazon was a net land carbon source over the whole study period (2010-2020). Overall, our results point to increasing human-induced disturbances (deforestation and forest degradation by wildfires) and reduction in the old-growth forest sink during drought.

Original language	English
Article number	46
Journal	Communications Earth and Environment
Volume	5
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01205-0
State	Published - Dec 2024

Funding

The development of this research has been supported by the Newton Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership Brazil (CSSP Brazil), RECCAP2 project which is part of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (contract no. 4000123002/18/I-NB), and the H2020 European Institute of Innovation and Technology (4C; Grant No. 821003). C.W. is funded via UK National Centre for Earth Observation (NE/R016518/1 and NE/N018079/1). L.S.B is funded by State of Sao Paulo Science Foundation\u2014FAPESP (2018/14006-4, 2020/02656-4). L.G. was funded by CARBAM project (FAPESP 2016/02018-2). ORNL is managed by UT-Battelle, LLC, for the DOE under contract DE-AC05-1008 00OR22725. For the purpose of open access, the author has applied a \u2018Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) licence to any Author Accepted Manuscript version arising. We thank Ian Harris for advising us on the CRUJRA forcing dataset.

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Rosan, T. M., Sitch, S., O’Sullivan, M., Basso, L. S., Wilson, C., Silva, C., Gloor, E., Fawcett, D., Heinrich, V., Souza, J. G., Bezerra, F. G. S., von Randow, C., Mercado, L. M., Gatti, L., Wiltshire, A., Friedlingstein, P., Pongratz, J., Schwingshackl, C., Williams, M., ... Aragão, L. E. O. C. (2024). Synthesis of the land carbon fluxes of the Amazon region between 2010 and 2020. Communications Earth and Environment, 5(1), Article 46. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01205-0

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title = "Synthesis of the land carbon fluxes of the Amazon region between 2010 and 2020",

abstract = "The Amazon is the largest continuous tropical forest in the world and plays a key role in the global carbon cycle. Human-induced disturbances and climate change have impacted the Amazon carbon balance. Here we conduct a comprehensive synthesis of existing state-of-the-art estimates of the contemporary land carbon fluxes in the Amazon using a set of bottom-up methods (i.e., dynamic vegetation models and bookkeeping models) and a top-down inversion (atmospheric inversion model) over the Brazilian Amazon and the whole Biogeographical Amazon domain. Over the whole biogeographical Amazon region bottom-up methodologies suggest a small average carbon sink over 2010-2020, in contrast to a small carbon source simulated by top-down inversion (2010-2018). However, these estimates are not significantly different from one another when accounting for their large individual uncertainties, highlighting remaining knowledge gaps, and the urgent need to reduce such uncertainties. Nevertheless, both methodologies agreed that the Brazilian Amazon has been a net carbon source during recent climate extremes and that the south-eastern Amazon was a net land carbon source over the whole study period (2010-2020). Overall, our results point to increasing human-induced disturbances (deforestation and forest degradation by wildfires) and reduction in the old-growth forest sink during drought.",

author = "Rosan, \{Thais M.\} and Stephen Sitch and Michael O{\textquoteright}Sullivan and Basso, \{Luana S.\} and Chris Wilson and Camila Silva and Emanuel Gloor and Dominic Fawcett and Viola Heinrich and Souza, \{Jefferson G.\} and Bezerra, \{Francisco Gilney Silva\} and \{von Randow\}, Celso and Mercado, \{Lina M.\} and Luciana Gatti and Andy Wiltshire and Pierre Friedlingstein and Julia Pongratz and Clemens Schwingshackl and Mathew Williams and Luke Smallman and J{\"u}rgen Knauer and Vivek Arora and Daniel Kennedy and Hanqin Tian and Wenping Yuan and Jain, \{Atul K.\} and Stefanie Falk and Benjamin Poulter and Almut Arneth and Qing Sun and S{\"o}nke Zaehle and Walker, \{Anthony P.\} and Etsushi Kato and Xu Yue and Ana Bastos and Philippe Ciais and Wigneron, \{Jean Pierre\} and Clement Albergel and Arag{\~a}o, \{Luiz E.O.C.\}",

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year = "2024",

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doi = "10.1038/s43247-024-01205-0",

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Rosan, TM, Sitch, S, O’Sullivan, M, Basso, LS, Wilson, C, Silva, C, Gloor, E, Fawcett, D, Heinrich, V, Souza, JG, Bezerra, FGS, von Randow, C, Mercado, LM, Gatti, L, Wiltshire, A, Friedlingstein, P, Pongratz, J, Schwingshackl, C, Williams, M, Smallman, L, Knauer, J, Arora, V, Kennedy, D, Tian, H, Yuan, W, Jain, AK, Falk, S, Poulter, B, Arneth, A, Sun, Q, Zaehle, S, Walker, AP, Kato, E, Yue, X, Bastos, A, Ciais, P, Wigneron, JP, Albergel, C & Aragão, LEOC 2024, 'Synthesis of the land carbon fluxes of the Amazon region between 2010 and 2020', Communications Earth and Environment, vol. 5, no. 1, 46. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01205-0

TY - JOUR

T1 - Synthesis of the land carbon fluxes of the Amazon region between 2010 and 2020

AU - Rosan, Thais M.

AU - Sitch, Stephen

AU - O’Sullivan, Michael

AU - Basso, Luana S.

AU - Wilson, Chris

AU - Silva, Camila

AU - Gloor, Emanuel

AU - Fawcett, Dominic

AU - Heinrich, Viola

AU - Souza, Jefferson G.

AU - Bezerra, Francisco Gilney Silva

AU - von Randow, Celso

AU - Mercado, Lina M.

AU - Gatti, Luciana

AU - Wiltshire, Andy

AU - Friedlingstein, Pierre

AU - Pongratz, Julia

AU - Schwingshackl, Clemens

AU - Williams, Mathew

AU - Smallman, Luke

AU - Knauer, Jürgen

AU - Arora, Vivek

AU - Kennedy, Daniel

AU - Tian, Hanqin

AU - Yuan, Wenping

AU - Jain, Atul K.

AU - Falk, Stefanie

AU - Poulter, Benjamin

AU - Arneth, Almut

AU - Sun, Qing

AU - Zaehle, Sönke

AU - Walker, Anthony P.

AU - Kato, Etsushi

AU - Yue, Xu

AU - Bastos, Ana

AU - Ciais, Philippe

AU - Wigneron, Jean Pierre

AU - Albergel, Clement

AU - Aragão, Luiz E.O.C.

PY - 2024/12

Y1 - 2024/12

N2 - The Amazon is the largest continuous tropical forest in the world and plays a key role in the global carbon cycle. Human-induced disturbances and climate change have impacted the Amazon carbon balance. Here we conduct a comprehensive synthesis of existing state-of-the-art estimates of the contemporary land carbon fluxes in the Amazon using a set of bottom-up methods (i.e., dynamic vegetation models and bookkeeping models) and a top-down inversion (atmospheric inversion model) over the Brazilian Amazon and the whole Biogeographical Amazon domain. Over the whole biogeographical Amazon region bottom-up methodologies suggest a small average carbon sink over 2010-2020, in contrast to a small carbon source simulated by top-down inversion (2010-2018). However, these estimates are not significantly different from one another when accounting for their large individual uncertainties, highlighting remaining knowledge gaps, and the urgent need to reduce such uncertainties. Nevertheless, both methodologies agreed that the Brazilian Amazon has been a net carbon source during recent climate extremes and that the south-eastern Amazon was a net land carbon source over the whole study period (2010-2020). Overall, our results point to increasing human-induced disturbances (deforestation and forest degradation by wildfires) and reduction in the old-growth forest sink during drought.

AB - The Amazon is the largest continuous tropical forest in the world and plays a key role in the global carbon cycle. Human-induced disturbances and climate change have impacted the Amazon carbon balance. Here we conduct a comprehensive synthesis of existing state-of-the-art estimates of the contemporary land carbon fluxes in the Amazon using a set of bottom-up methods (i.e., dynamic vegetation models and bookkeeping models) and a top-down inversion (atmospheric inversion model) over the Brazilian Amazon and the whole Biogeographical Amazon domain. Over the whole biogeographical Amazon region bottom-up methodologies suggest a small average carbon sink over 2010-2020, in contrast to a small carbon source simulated by top-down inversion (2010-2018). However, these estimates are not significantly different from one another when accounting for their large individual uncertainties, highlighting remaining knowledge gaps, and the urgent need to reduce such uncertainties. Nevertheless, both methodologies agreed that the Brazilian Amazon has been a net carbon source during recent climate extremes and that the south-eastern Amazon was a net land carbon source over the whole study period (2010-2020). Overall, our results point to increasing human-induced disturbances (deforestation and forest degradation by wildfires) and reduction in the old-growth forest sink during drought.

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Synthesis of the land carbon fluxes of the Amazon region between 2010 and 2020

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