Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity

J. Keith Moore; Weiwei Fu; Francois Primeau; Gregory L. Britten; Keith Lindsay; Matthew Long; Scott C. Doney; Natalie Mahowald; Forrest Hoffman; James T. Randerson

doi:10.1126/science.aao6379

Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity

J. Keith Moore
, Weiwei Fu
, Francois Primeau
, Gregory L. Britten
, Keith Lindsay
, Matthew Long
, Scott C. Doney
, Natalie Mahowald
, Forrest Hoffman
, James T. Randerson

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

374 Scopus citations

Abstract

Climate change projections to the year 2100 may miss physical-biogeochemical feedbacks that emerge later from the cumulative effects of climate warming. In a coupled climate simulation to the year 2300, the westerly winds strengthen and shift poleward, surface waters warm, and sea ice disappears, leading to intense nutrient trapping in the Southern Ocean. The trapping drives a global-scale nutrient redistribution, with net transfer to the deep ocean. Ensuing surface nutrient reductions north of 30°S drive steady declines in primary production and carbon export (decreases of 24 and 41%, respectively, by 2300). Potential fishery yields, constrained by lower–trophic-level productivity, decrease by more than 20% globally and by nearly 60% in the North Atlantic. Continued high levels of greenhouse gas emissions could suppress marine biological productivity for a millennium.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	113-1143
Number of pages	1031
Journal	Science
Volume	359
Issue number	6380
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aao6379
State	Published - Mar 9 2018
Externally published	Yes

Funding

We received support from the Reducing Uncertainty in Biogeochemical Interactions through Synthesis and Computation (RUBISCO) Scientific Focus Area (SFA) in the Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program in the Climate and Environmental Sciences Division of the Biological and Environmental Research (BER) Division of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science (as well as DOE BER Earth System Modeling Program grants ER65358 and DE-SC0016539 to J.K.M. and F.P.). Some authors received additional support from the NSF. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project received support from the World Climate Research Programme and the DOE Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) provided computational and other support. NCAR is sponsored by the NSF.

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Cite this

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title = "Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity",

abstract = "Climate change projections to the year 2100 may miss physical-biogeochemical feedbacks that emerge later from the cumulative effects of climate warming. In a coupled climate simulation to the year 2300, the westerly winds strengthen and shift poleward, surface waters warm, and sea ice disappears, leading to intense nutrient trapping in the Southern Ocean. The trapping drives a global-scale nutrient redistribution, with net transfer to the deep ocean. Ensuing surface nutrient reductions north of 30°S drive steady declines in primary production and carbon export (decreases of 24 and 41\%, respectively, by 2300). Potential fishery yields, constrained by lower–trophic-level productivity, decrease by more than 20\% globally and by nearly 60\% in the North Atlantic. Continued high levels of greenhouse gas emissions could suppress marine biological productivity for a millennium.",

author = "\{Keith Moore\}, J. and Weiwei Fu and Francois Primeau and Britten, \{Gregory L.\} and Keith Lindsay and Matthew Long and Doney, \{Scott C.\} and Natalie Mahowald and Forrest Hoffman and Randerson, \{James T.\}",

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doi = "10.1126/science.aao6379",

language = "English",

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T1 - Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity

AU - Keith Moore, J.

AU - Fu, Weiwei

AU - Primeau, Francois

AU - Britten, Gregory L.

AU - Lindsay, Keith

AU - Long, Matthew

AU - Doney, Scott C.

AU - Mahowald, Natalie

AU - Hoffman, Forrest

AU - Randerson, James T.

PY - 2018/3/9

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N2 - Climate change projections to the year 2100 may miss physical-biogeochemical feedbacks that emerge later from the cumulative effects of climate warming. In a coupled climate simulation to the year 2300, the westerly winds strengthen and shift poleward, surface waters warm, and sea ice disappears, leading to intense nutrient trapping in the Southern Ocean. The trapping drives a global-scale nutrient redistribution, with net transfer to the deep ocean. Ensuing surface nutrient reductions north of 30°S drive steady declines in primary production and carbon export (decreases of 24 and 41%, respectively, by 2300). Potential fishery yields, constrained by lower–trophic-level productivity, decrease by more than 20% globally and by nearly 60% in the North Atlantic. Continued high levels of greenhouse gas emissions could suppress marine biological productivity for a millennium.

AB - Climate change projections to the year 2100 may miss physical-biogeochemical feedbacks that emerge later from the cumulative effects of climate warming. In a coupled climate simulation to the year 2300, the westerly winds strengthen and shift poleward, surface waters warm, and sea ice disappears, leading to intense nutrient trapping in the Southern Ocean. The trapping drives a global-scale nutrient redistribution, with net transfer to the deep ocean. Ensuing surface nutrient reductions north of 30°S drive steady declines in primary production and carbon export (decreases of 24 and 41%, respectively, by 2300). Potential fishery yields, constrained by lower–trophic-level productivity, decrease by more than 20% globally and by nearly 60% in the North Atlantic. Continued high levels of greenhouse gas emissions could suppress marine biological productivity for a millennium.

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DO - 10.1126/science.aao6379

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VL - 359

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Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity

Abstract

Funding

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