Abstract
This analysis explores the valuation of feedstock quality attributes of switchgrass and miscanthus – two energy crops poised for future expansion – and compares the relative economic availability of these two crops under two scenarios: (i) uniform price assumptions (i.e., no incentive for quality), and (ii) a scenario of a price premium based on convertibility (i.e., an incentive for quality). Given data on cellulose content, hemicellulose content, and their relative convertibility, miscanthus is expected to be 11% more efficient at conversion to biofuels than switchgrass under the biochemical conversion route. Based on this scenario of improved conversion efficiency and associated profit, we simulate an 11% price premium for miscanthus over other feedstocks in a base-case scenario. By adding this price premium, supplies of miscanthus increase over the base case by about 4 million (44%), 94 million (64%), and 166 million (94%) tons in year 0, 10, and 20 after simulated contracts for production are initiated respectively. These results emphasize that custom simulations are needed to quantify feedstock availability if supplies are intended to reflect grower response to industry demands for feedstock quality specifications. Farmers can grow ‘peas or carrots’, and price signals from biorefineries will influence what energy crops they produce. Recognizing that the energy crop mix is tractable according to quality characteristics is relevant both for near-term and long-term biofuels research and development. We recommend accounting for market preferences for quality attributes when estimating potential future supplies of energy crops.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 736-748 |
| Number of pages | 13 |
| Journal | Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining |
| Volume | 15 |
| Issue number | 3 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - May 1 2021 |
Funding
This manuscript has been authored by UT‐Battelle, LLC, under contract DE‐AC05‐00OR22725 with the US Department of Energy (DOE). The US government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the US government retains a nonexclusive, paid‐up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for US government purposes. DOE will provide public access to these results of federally sponsored research in accordance with the DOE Public Access Plan ( http://energy.gov/downloads/doe‐public‐access‐plan ). We thank the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) for funding and supporting this work. We are grateful to Dr Rachel M. Emerson at Idaho National Laboratory and Dr Nawa Baral at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory for providing data and comments to support this work. The views and opinions of the authors expressed here do not necessarily state or reflect those of the US government or any agency thereof. Neither the United States government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, expressed or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights.
Keywords
- billion-ton report
- policy analysis system model
- quality variability
- supply uncertainty