Abstract
Tropical forest dynamics and composition have changed over recent decades, but the proximate drivers of these changes remain unclear. Investigations into these trends have focused on increasing drought stress, CO2, temperature, and fires, whereas convective storms are generally overlooked. We argue that existing literature provides clear support for the importance of storms as drivers of forest change. We reanalyze the largest plot-based study of tropical forest carbon dynamics to show that lightning frequency—an indicator of storm activity—strongly predicts forest carbon storage and residence time, and its inclusion improves model fit and weakens evidence for the effects of high temperatures. Convective storm activity has increased 5%–25% per decade over the past half century. Extrapolating from historic trends, we estimate that storms likely contribute ca. 50% of the reported increases in biomass mortality across Amazonia, with all realistic combinations of assumptions indicating a possible range of 12%–118%. Spatial variation in storm activity shows weak relationships with drought, demonstrating that forests can experience high drought stress, high storm activity, or both. Accordingly, we hypothesise that convective storms are among the most important drivers of tropical forest change, and as such, they require significant research investment to avoid misguiding science, policy, and management.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | e70157 |
| Journal | Ecology Letters |
| Volume | 28 |
| Issue number | 7 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Jul 2025 |
Funding
Funding: This work was supported by Royal Society, RGS\R1\221115. UK Research and Innovation, NE/V021346/1, NE/W003872/1, NE/Y003942/1. Centre de Synthèse et d'Analyse sur la Biodiversité, Syntreesys. Department of Energy Office of Science, NGEE-Tropics. US National Science Foundation, Division of Environmental Biology, 2213245, 2241507, 2213246. This work was supported by NSF grants DEB-2213245 and DEB-2241507 to E.M.G., and NE/W003872/1 to MS and E.M.G.; A.E.-M. was further funded by the Royal Society Standard Grant RGS\R1\221115 ‘MegaFlora’, the UKRI/NERC TreeScapes NE/V021346/1 ‘MEMBRA’, the NERC/NSF Gigante NE/Y003942/1 and the FRB/CESAB ‘Syntreesys’. The research of K.C.C. was carried out at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, which is managed by the University of Tennessee-Battelle LLC, under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the U.S. Department of Energy, and was supported by the Next Generation Ecosystem Experiments-Tropics, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research (DE-AC02-05CH11231). Notice: This manuscript has been authored in part by UT-Battelle LLC, under contract no. DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the US Department of Energy (DOE). The US government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the US government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for US government purposes. DOE will provide public access to these results of federally sponsored research in accordance with the DOE Public Access Plan (http://energy.gov/downloads/doe-publicaccess-plan). This work was supported by NSF grants DEB‐2213245 and DEB‐2241507 to E.M.G., and NE/W003872/1 to MS and E.M.G.; A.E.‐M. was further funded by the Royal Society Standard Grant RGS\R1\221115 ‘MegaFlora’, the UKRI/NERC TreeScapes NE/V021346/1 ‘MEMBRA’, the NERC/NSF Gigante NE/Y003942/1 and the FRB/CESAB ‘Syntreesys’. The research of K.C.C. was carried out at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, which is managed by the University of Tennessee‐Battelle LLC, under contract DE‐AC05‐00OR22725 with the U.S. Department of Energy, and was supported by the Next Generation Ecosystem Experiments‐Tropics, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research (DE‐AC02‐05CH11231). Notice: This manuscript has been authored in part by UT‐Battelle LLC, under contract no. DE‐AC05‐00OR22725 with the US Department of Energy (DOE). The US government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the US government retains a nonexclusive, paid‐up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for US government purposes. DOE will provide public access to these results of federally sponsored research in accordance with the DOE Public Access Plan ( http://energy.gov/downloads/doe‐publicaccess‐plan ). This work was supported by Royal Society, RGS\R1\221115. UK Research and Innovation, NE/V021346/1, NE/W003872/1, NE/Y003942/1. Centre de Synthèse et d'Analyse sur la Biodiversité, Syntreesys. Department of Energy Office of Science, NGEE‐Tropics. US National Science Foundation, Division of Environmental Biology, 2213245, 2241507, 2213246. Funding:
Keywords
- biomass carbon
- carbon cycling
- carbon sink
- climate change
- convective storms
- drought
- forest dynamics
- tree mortality
- vapour pressure deficit (VPD)