SpecSims: A Scalable Speculative Tree-based Simulation Cloning Framework for Finite Memory Machines

Simulation cloning is a technique in which cloned simulations whose state spaces differ partially from their parent simulation due to intervening events are spawned at runtime and concurrently advanced. It is a powerful method to carry out what-if analysis by speculatively exploring and evaluating the impact of various permutations of intervening cascade of events. Due to the exponential growth in the number of possible clones even for a small number of distinct intervening events, the practical efficacy of the approach is often severely limited by the maximum available memory of the computing host. In this paper, we introduce a novel speculative simulation cloning framework that executes a simulation cloning campaign capable of efficiently exploring an exponentially large space of clone simulations created by permutation of intervening events under a finite memory constraint. We provide a theoretical analysis of the runtime characteristics of our proposed approach and highlight its novel advantages such as memory-aware and as-long-as-needed execution. In support of our analytical findings and to demonstrate its practical feasibility, we implement a prototype of the cloning framework on a shared memory system and report its performance characteristics in the context of a heat diffusion simulation, and a power grid simulation subject to cascading disruptions from geomagnetic disturbances.