Abstract
Major droughts in the United States have heavily impacted the hydrologic system, negatively effecting energy and food production. Improved understanding of historical drought is critical for accurate forecasts. Data from global climate models (GCMs), commonly used to assess drought, cannot effectively evaluate local patterns because of their low spatial scale. This research leverages downscaled (~4 km grid spacing) temperature and precipitation estimates from nine GCMs’ data under the business‐as‐usual scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) to examine drought patterns. Drought severity is estimated using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) with the Thornthwaite evapotranspiration method. The specific objectives were (1) To reproduce historical (1966–2005) drought and calculate near‐term to future (2011–2050) drought patterns over the conterminous USA. (2) To uncover the local variability of spatial drought patterns in California between 2012 and 2018 using a network‐based approach. Our estimates of land proportions affected by drought agree with the known historical drought events of the mid‐1960s, late 1970s to early 1980s, early 2000s, and between 2012 and 2015. Network analysis showed heterogeneity in spatial drought patterns in California, indicating local variability of drought occurrence. The high spatial scale at which the analysis was performed allowed us to uncover significant local differences in drought patterns. This is critical for highlighting possible weak systems that could inform adaptation strategies such as in the energy and agricultural sectors.
Original language | English |
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Article number | 136 |
Journal | Hydrology |
Volume | 8 |
Issue number | 3 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - Sep 2021 |
Funding
This manuscript has been authored by UT‐Battelle, LLC, under contract DE‐ AC05–00OR22725 with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The U.S. government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the U.S. government retains a non‐exclusive, paid‐up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for U.S. government purposes. DOE will provide public access to these results of federally sponsored research in accordance with the DOE Public Access Plan (http://energy.gov/downloads/doe‐public‐access‐plan). This research was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy, Biological, and Environmental Research, under contract DE‐AC05– 00OR22725 with UT‐Battelle, LLC.
Funders | Funder number |
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DOE Public Access Plan | DE‐ AC05–00OR22725 |
U.S. Government | |
U.S. Department of Energy |
Keywords
- Downscaled climate data
- Drought assessment
- PDSI
- Spatial temporal
- USA