Snowfall less sensitive to warming in Karakoram than in Himalayas due to a unique seasonal cycle

Sarah B. Kapnick, Thomas L. Delworth, Moetasim Ashfaq, Sergey Malyshev, P. C.D. Milly

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

243 Scopus citations

Abstract

The high mountains of Asia, including the Karakoram, Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, combine to form a region of perplexing hydroclimate changes. Glaciers have exhibited mass stability or even expansion in the Karakoram region1-3, contrasting with glacial mass loss across the nearby Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau1,4, a pattern that has been termed the Karakoram anomaly. However, the remote location, complex terrain and multi-country fabric of high-mountain Asia have made it difficult to maintain longer-term monitoring systems of the meteorological components that may have influenced glacial change. Here we compare a set of high-resolution climate model simulations from 1861 to 2100 with the latest available observations to focus on the distinct seasonal cycles and resulting climate change signatures of Asia's high-mountain ranges.We find that the Karakoram seasonal cycle is dominated by non-monsoonal winter precipitation, which uniquely protects it from reductions in annual snowfall under climate warming over the twenty-first century. The simulations show that climate change signals are detectable only with long and continuous records, and at specific elevations. Our findings suggest a meteorological mechanism for regional differences in the glacier response to climate warming.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)834-840
Number of pages7
JournalNature Geoscience
Volume7
Issue number11
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 5 2014

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