Robust late twenty-first century shift in the regional monsoons in RegCM-CORDEX simulations

Moetasim Ashfaq; Tereza Cavazos; Michelle Simões Reboita; José Abraham Torres-Alavez; Eun Soon Im; Christiana Funmilola Olusegun; Lincoln Alves; Kesondra Key; Mojisola O. Adeniyi; Moustapha Tall; Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla; Shahid Mehmood; Qudsia Zafar; Sushant Das; Ismaila Diallo; Erika Coppola; Filippo Giorgi

doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05306-2

Robust late twenty-first century shift in the regional monsoons in RegCM-CORDEX simulations

Moetasim Ashfaq, Tereza Cavazos, Michelle Simões Reboita, José Abraham Torres-Alavez, Eun Soon Im, Christiana Funmilola Olusegun, Lincoln Alves, Kesondra Key, Mojisola O. Adeniyi, Moustapha Tall, Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla, Shahid Mehmood, Qudsia Zafar, Sushant Das, Ismaila Diallo, Erika Coppola, Filippo Giorgi

Computational Earth Sciences Group

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58 Scopus citations

Abstract

We use an unprecedented ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections over seven regional CORDEX domains to provide, for the first time, an RCM-based global view of monsoon changes at various levels of increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. All regional simulations are conducted using RegCM4 at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing using lateral and lower boundary forcing from three General Circulation Models (GCMs), which are part of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Each simulation covers the period from 1970 through 2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Regional climate simulations exhibit high fidelity in capturing key characteristics of precipitation and atmospheric dynamics across monsoon regions in the historical period. In the future period, regional monsoons exhibit a spatially robust delay in the monsoon onset, an increase in seasonality, and a reduction in the rainy season length at higher levels of radiative forcing. All regions with substantial delays in the monsoon onset exhibit a decrease in pre-monsoon precipitation, indicating a strong connection between pre-monsoon drying and a shift in the monsoon onset. The weakening of latent heat driven atmospheric warming during the pre-monsoon period delays the overturning of atmospheric subsidence in the monsoon regions, which defers their transitioning into deep convective states. Monsoon changes under the RCP2.6 scenario are mostly within the baseline variability.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1463-1488
Number of pages	26
Journal	Climate Dynamics
Volume	57
Issue number	5-6
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05306-2
State	Published - Sep 2021

Funding

We thank the two anonymous reviewers for their encouraging comments. Support for model simulations, data storage and analyses are partly provided by the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). M. A. was supported by the National Climate‐Computing Research Center, which is located within the National Center for Computational Sciences at the ORNL and supported under a Strategic Partnership Project, 2316‐T849‐08, between DOE and NOAA. M.S.R would like to thank CNPq-Brazil. E.S.M was supported by the Hong Kong Research Grants Council funded project, GRF16309719. This manuscript has been co-authored by employees of Oak Ridge National Laboratory, managed by UT Battelle, LLC, under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the U.S. Department of Energy. The publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the United States Government retains a non-exclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, world-wide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for United States Government purposes. The Department of Energy will provide public access to these results of federally sponsored research in accordance with the DOE Public Access Plan ( https://energy.gov/downloads/doe-public-access-plan ). We thank the two anonymous reviewers for their encouraging comments. Support for model simulations, data storage and analyses are partly provided by the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). M. A. was supported by the National Climate?Computing Research Center, which is located within the National Center for Computational Sciences at the ORNL and supported under a Strategic Partnership Project, 2316?T849?08, between DOE and NOAA. M.S.R would like to thank CNPq-Brazil. E.S.M was supported by the Hong Kong Research Grants Council funded project, GRF16309719. This manuscript has been co-authored by employees of Oak Ridge National Laboratory, managed by UT Battelle, LLC, under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the U.S. Department of Energy. The publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the United States Government retains a non-exclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, world-wide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for United States Government purposes. The Department of Energy will provide public access to these results of federally sponsored research in accordance with the DOE Public Access Plan (https://energy.gov/downloads/doe-public-access-plan).

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Ashfaq, M., Cavazos, T., Reboita, M. S., Torres-Alavez, J. A., Im, E. S., Olusegun, C. F., Alves, L., Key, K., Adeniyi, M. O., Tall, M., Sylla, M. B., Mehmood, S., Zafar, Q., Das, S., Diallo, I., Coppola, E., & Giorgi, F. (2021). Robust late twenty-first century shift in the regional monsoons in RegCM-CORDEX simulations. Climate Dynamics, 57(5-6), 1463-1488. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05306-2

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title = "Robust late twenty-first century shift in the regional monsoons in RegCM-CORDEX simulations",

abstract = "We use an unprecedented ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections over seven regional CORDEX domains to provide, for the first time, an RCM-based global view of monsoon changes at various levels of increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. All regional simulations are conducted using RegCM4 at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing using lateral and lower boundary forcing from three General Circulation Models (GCMs), which are part of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Each simulation covers the period from 1970 through 2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Regional climate simulations exhibit high fidelity in capturing key characteristics of precipitation and atmospheric dynamics across monsoon regions in the historical period. In the future period, regional monsoons exhibit a spatially robust delay in the monsoon onset, an increase in seasonality, and a reduction in the rainy season length at higher levels of radiative forcing. All regions with substantial delays in the monsoon onset exhibit a decrease in pre-monsoon precipitation, indicating a strong connection between pre-monsoon drying and a shift in the monsoon onset. The weakening of latent heat driven atmospheric warming during the pre-monsoon period delays the overturning of atmospheric subsidence in the monsoon regions, which defers their transitioning into deep convective states. Monsoon changes under the RCP2.6 scenario are mostly within the baseline variability.",

author = "Moetasim Ashfaq and Tereza Cavazos and Reboita, {Michelle Sim{\~o}es} and Torres-Alavez, {Jos{\'e} Abraham} and Im, {Eun Soon} and Olusegun, {Christiana Funmilola} and Lincoln Alves and Kesondra Key and Adeniyi, {Mojisola O.} and Moustapha Tall and Sylla, {Mouhamadou Bamba} and Shahid Mehmood and Qudsia Zafar and Sushant Das and Ismaila Diallo and Erika Coppola and Filippo Giorgi",

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Ashfaq, M, Cavazos, T, Reboita, MS, Torres-Alavez, JA, Im, ES, Olusegun, CF, Alves, L, Key, K, Adeniyi, MO, Tall, M, Sylla, MB, Mehmood, S, Zafar, Q, Das, S, Diallo, I, Coppola, E & Giorgi, F 2021, 'Robust late twenty-first century shift in the regional monsoons in RegCM-CORDEX simulations', Climate Dynamics, vol. 57, no. 5-6, pp. 1463-1488. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05306-2

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T1 - Robust late twenty-first century shift in the regional monsoons in RegCM-CORDEX simulations

AU - Ashfaq, Moetasim

AU - Cavazos, Tereza

AU - Reboita, Michelle Simões

AU - Torres-Alavez, José Abraham

AU - Im, Eun Soon

AU - Olusegun, Christiana Funmilola

AU - Alves, Lincoln

AU - Key, Kesondra

AU - Adeniyi, Mojisola O.

AU - Tall, Moustapha

AU - Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba

AU - Mehmood, Shahid

AU - Zafar, Qudsia

AU - Das, Sushant

AU - Diallo, Ismaila

AU - Coppola, Erika

AU - Giorgi, Filippo

PY - 2021/9

Y1 - 2021/9

N2 - We use an unprecedented ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections over seven regional CORDEX domains to provide, for the first time, an RCM-based global view of monsoon changes at various levels of increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. All regional simulations are conducted using RegCM4 at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing using lateral and lower boundary forcing from three General Circulation Models (GCMs), which are part of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Each simulation covers the period from 1970 through 2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Regional climate simulations exhibit high fidelity in capturing key characteristics of precipitation and atmospheric dynamics across monsoon regions in the historical period. In the future period, regional monsoons exhibit a spatially robust delay in the monsoon onset, an increase in seasonality, and a reduction in the rainy season length at higher levels of radiative forcing. All regions with substantial delays in the monsoon onset exhibit a decrease in pre-monsoon precipitation, indicating a strong connection between pre-monsoon drying and a shift in the monsoon onset. The weakening of latent heat driven atmospheric warming during the pre-monsoon period delays the overturning of atmospheric subsidence in the monsoon regions, which defers their transitioning into deep convective states. Monsoon changes under the RCP2.6 scenario are mostly within the baseline variability.

AB - We use an unprecedented ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections over seven regional CORDEX domains to provide, for the first time, an RCM-based global view of monsoon changes at various levels of increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. All regional simulations are conducted using RegCM4 at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing using lateral and lower boundary forcing from three General Circulation Models (GCMs), which are part of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Each simulation covers the period from 1970 through 2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Regional climate simulations exhibit high fidelity in capturing key characteristics of precipitation and atmospheric dynamics across monsoon regions in the historical period. In the future period, regional monsoons exhibit a spatially robust delay in the monsoon onset, an increase in seasonality, and a reduction in the rainy season length at higher levels of radiative forcing. All regions with substantial delays in the monsoon onset exhibit a decrease in pre-monsoon precipitation, indicating a strong connection between pre-monsoon drying and a shift in the monsoon onset. The weakening of latent heat driven atmospheric warming during the pre-monsoon period delays the overturning of atmospheric subsidence in the monsoon regions, which defers their transitioning into deep convective states. Monsoon changes under the RCP2.6 scenario are mostly within the baseline variability.

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JO - Climate Dynamics

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ER -

Robust late twenty-first century shift in the regional monsoons in RegCM-CORDEX simulations

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