Abstract
Prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is at the heart of tropical climate prediction. Despite enormous progress having been made in predicting ISMR since 1886, the operational forecasts during recent decades (1989-2012) have little skill. Here we show, with both dynamical and physical-empirical models, that this recent failure is largely due to the models' inability to capture new predictability sources emerging during recent global warming, that is, the development of the central-Pacific El Nino-Southern Oscillation (CP-ENSO), the rapid deepening of the Asian Low and the strengthening of North and South Pacific Highs during boreal spring. A physical-empirical model that captures these new predictors can produce an independent forecast skill of 0.51 for 1989-2012 and a 92-year retrospective forecast skill of 0.64 for 1921-2012. The recent low skills of the dynamical models are attributed to deficiencies in capturing the developing CP-ENSO and anomalous Asian Low. The results reveal a considerable gap between ISMR prediction skill and predictability.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 7154 |
| Journal | Nature Communications |
| Volume | 6 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - May 18 2015 |
| Externally published | Yes |
Funding
We thank Professor B.N. Goswami for his constructive comments in an early version of the manuscript. This study was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41420104002 and 41371209) (J. Liu and B.W.), and the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (Grant No. 164320H116) (J. Liu), the US National Science Foundation awards #AGS-1005599 (B.W.) and #AGS 0965610 (P.J.W.), and the Global Research Laboratory Program from the National Research Foundation of Korea (Grant No. 2011-0021927) (K.-J.H. and B.W.). B.X. was supported by NOAA MAPP Program under Awards NA12OAR4310075. This is publication no. 9297 of the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, publication no. 1108 of the International Pacific Research Center and publication no. 41 of the Earth System Modelling Center. We thank Professor B.N. Goswami for his constructive comments in an early version of the manuscript. This study was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41420104002 and 41371209) (J. Liu and B.W.), the US National Science Foundation awards #AGS-1005599 (B.W.) and # AGS 0965610 (P.J.W.) and the Global Research Laboratory (GRL) Program from the National Research Foundation of Korea (Grant No. 2011-0021927) (K.-J.H. and B.W.). B.X. was supported by NOAA MAPP Program under Awards NA12OAR4310075. This is publication No. 9297 of the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, publication No. 1108 of the International Pacific Research Center and publication No. 41 of Earth System Modelling Center.