Relative effect of anthropogenic warming and natural climate variability to changes in Compound drought and heatwaves

Sourav Mukherjee, Ashok Kumar Mishra, Moetasim Ashfaq, Shih Chieh Kao

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44 Scopus citations

Abstract

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events can be influenced by large scale teleconnections and anthropogenic warming, leading to severe socio-economic impacts across various climate regions. In this study, the relative influence of six different teleconnection patterns and anthropogenic global warming on the global CDHW occurrences is quantified systematically using the instrumental data period, 1982–2016. The results from the study suggest a substantial increase in the CDHW events (1–5 events per year) across various parts of the globe at the beginning of 21st century (2000–2016). A Bayesian approach is implemented to identify the most vulnerable climate regions based on the degree of susceptibility of heatwaves (DSHW) towards drought. As such, top ten most vulnerable regions are selected based on the DSHW magnitude, and a partial correlation analysis is performed to select the natural and anthropogenic drivers of CDHW in those regions, separately. A logistic regression model is then used to determine significant changes in the odds of CDHW due to changes in the selected drivers that suggest a significantly positive, and multiplicative effect of anthropogenic global warming in the top ten most vulnerable climate regions. Finally, the same logistic regression model, integrated with an analytical framework, is applied to determine the relative influence of anthropogenic global warming on the changes in odds of CDHW for the future, 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming limits. The results suggest that relative to the 2 °C global warming, constraining to the 1.5 °C global warming limit may conduce about 17-fold reduction in the odds of CDHW in the most vulnerable climate region, East Asia, 5–8-fold reduction in Western North America, Northern Australia, Central North America, Central Europe, South Asia, and the Mediterranean region, and 3–4-fold reduction in Northeastern Brazil, Eastern North America, and West Asia.

Original languageEnglish
Article number127396
JournalJournal of Hydrology
Volume605
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 2022

Funding

This study was supported by the National Science Foundation ( NSF ) award # 1653841 in collaboration with the National Climate‐Computing Research Center, which is located within the National Center for Computational Sciences at the ORNL and supported under a Strategic Partnership Project, 2316‐T849‐08, between DOE and NOAA. We are thankful for the data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their website at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.cpc.globaltemp.html , Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC; https://www.dwd.de/EN/ourservices/gpcc/gpcc.html ), HadCRUT4 (from https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/ ), and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5; https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip5/ ). This study was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) award # 1653841 in collaboration with the National Climate?Computing Research Center, which is located within the National Center for Computational Sciences at the ORNL and supported under a Strategic Partnership Project, 2316?T849?08, between DOE and NOAA. We are thankful for the data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their website at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.cpc.globaltemp.html, Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC; https://www.dwd.de/EN/ourservices/gpcc/gpcc.html), HadCRUT4 (from https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/), and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5; https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip5/).

Keywords

  • Climate Change
  • Compound drought and heatwave
  • Global Warming
  • Hydroclimatic Extreme Events
  • Natural climate variability

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