Quantification of human contribution to soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity

Yaoping Wang; Jiafu Mao; Forrest M. Hoffman; Céline J.W. Bonfils; Hervé Douville; Mingzhou Jin; Peter E. Thornton; Daniel M. Ricciuto; Xiaoying Shi; Haishan Chen; Stan D. Wullschleger; Shilong Piao; Yongjiu Dai

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-34071-5

Quantification of human contribution to soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity

Yaoping Wang, Jiafu Mao, Forrest M. Hoffman, Céline J.W. Bonfils, Hervé Douville, Mingzhou Jin, Peter E. Thornton, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Xiaoying Shi, Haishan Chen, Stan D. Wullschleger, Shilong Piao, Yongjiu Dai

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

10 Scopus citations

Abstract

Current knowledge of the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity has considerable uncertainty. Using Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) calculated from multi-source merged data sets, we find widespread drying in the global midlatitudes, and wetting in the northern subtropics and in spring between 45°N–65°N, during 1971–2016. Formal detection and attribution analysis shows that human forcings, especially greenhouse gases, contribute significantly to the changes in 0–10 cm SSI during August–November, and 0–100 cm during September–April. We further develop and apply an emergent constraint method on the future SSI’s signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios and trends under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5. The results show continued significant presence of human forcings and more rapid drying in 0–10 cm than 0–100 cm. Our findings highlight the predominant human contributions to spatiotemporally heterogenous terrestrial aridification, providing a basis for drought and flood risk management.

Original language	English
Article number	6848
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	13
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-34071-5
State	Published - Dec 2022

Funding

This research was supported by an Oak Ridge National Laboratory subcontract no. 4000169153 (Y.W., M.J.), the Reducing Uncertainties in Biogeochemical Interactions through Synthesis and Computation Science Focus Area (RUBISCO SFA) funded through the Regional and Global Model Analysis activity in the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division of the Biological and Environmental Research office in the DOE Office of Science (J.M., F.M.H., X.S.), the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory contract no. DE-AC52–07NA27344 and the DOE Regional and Global Model Analysis Program under the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis & Intercomparison Science Focus Area (PCMDI SFA) (C.J.W.B.), the National Natural Science Foundation of China grant no. 42130609 (H.C.) and no. U1811464 (Y.D.). The authors thank Dr. Aurélien Ribes for his insightful suggestions on the initial version of this manuscript and Dr. Rongfan Chai for his aid in preparing some of the graphs. This research used resources of the Compute and Data Environment for Science at ORNL. ORNL is managed by UT-Battelle, LLC, for DOE under Contract No. DE-AC05-00OR22725. This manuscript has been authored by UT-Battelle LLC under Contract No. DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the US Department of Energy (DOE). The US government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the US government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for US government purposes. DOE will provide public access to these results of federally sponsored research in accordance with the DOE Public Access Plan (http://energy.gov/downloads/doe-public-access-plan). This research was supported by an Oak Ridge National Laboratory subcontract no. 4000169153 (Y.W., M.J.), the Reducing Uncertainties in Biogeochemical Interactions through Synthesis and Computation Science Focus Area (RUBISCO SFA) funded through the Regional and Global Model Analysis activity in the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division of the Biological and Environmental Research office in the DOE Office of Science (J.M., F.M.H., X.S.), the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory contract no. DE-AC52–07NA27344 and the DOE Regional and Global Model Analysis Program under the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis & Intercomparison Science Focus Area (PCMDI SFA) (C.J.W.B.), the National Natural Science Foundation of China grant no. 42130609 (H.C.) and no. U1811464 (Y.D.). The authors thank Dr. Aurélien Ribes for his insightful suggestions on the initial version of this manuscript and Dr. Rongfan Chai for his aid in preparing some of the graphs. This research used resources of the Compute and Data Environment for Science at ORNL. ORNL is managed by UT-Battelle, LLC, for DOE under Contract No. DE-AC05-00OR22725. This manuscript has been authored by UT-Battelle LLC under Contract No. DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the US Department of Energy (DOE). The US government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the US government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for US government purposes. DOE will provide public access to these results of federally sponsored research in accordance with the DOE Public Access Plan ( http://energy.gov/downloads/doe-public-access-plan ).

Funders	Funder number
DOE Public Access Plan
U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Science
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory	DE-AC52–07NA27344
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Oak Ridge National Laboratory	DE-AC05-00OR22725, 4000169153
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
UT-Battelle
National Natural Science Foundation of China	42130609, U1811464
National Natural Science Foundation of China

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10.1038/s41467-022-34071-5

Cite this

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title = "Quantification of human contribution to soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity",

abstract = "Current knowledge of the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity has considerable uncertainty. Using Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) calculated from multi-source merged data sets, we find widespread drying in the global midlatitudes, and wetting in the northern subtropics and in spring between 45°N–65°N, during 1971–2016. Formal detection and attribution analysis shows that human forcings, especially greenhouse gases, contribute significantly to the changes in 0–10 cm SSI during August–November, and 0–100 cm during September–April. We further develop and apply an emergent constraint method on the future SSI{\textquoteright}s signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios and trends under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5. The results show continued significant presence of human forcings and more rapid drying in 0–10 cm than 0–100 cm. Our findings highlight the predominant human contributions to spatiotemporally heterogenous terrestrial aridification, providing a basis for drought and flood risk management.",

author = "Yaoping Wang and Jiafu Mao and Hoffman, {Forrest M.} and Bonfils, {C{\'e}line J.W.} and Herv{\'e} Douville and Mingzhou Jin and Thornton, {Peter E.} and Ricciuto, {Daniel M.} and Xiaoying Shi and Haishan Chen and Wullschleger, {Stan D.} and Shilong Piao and Yongjiu Dai",

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doi = "10.1038/s41467-022-34071-5",

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AU - Wang, Yaoping

AU - Mao, Jiafu

AU - Hoffman, Forrest M.

AU - Bonfils, Céline J.W.

AU - Douville, Hervé

AU - Jin, Mingzhou

AU - Thornton, Peter E.

AU - Ricciuto, Daniel M.

AU - Shi, Xiaoying

AU - Chen, Haishan

AU - Wullschleger, Stan D.

AU - Piao, Shilong

AU - Dai, Yongjiu

PY - 2022/12

Y1 - 2022/12

N2 - Current knowledge of the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity has considerable uncertainty. Using Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) calculated from multi-source merged data sets, we find widespread drying in the global midlatitudes, and wetting in the northern subtropics and in spring between 45°N–65°N, during 1971–2016. Formal detection and attribution analysis shows that human forcings, especially greenhouse gases, contribute significantly to the changes in 0–10 cm SSI during August–November, and 0–100 cm during September–April. We further develop and apply an emergent constraint method on the future SSI’s signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios and trends under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5. The results show continued significant presence of human forcings and more rapid drying in 0–10 cm than 0–100 cm. Our findings highlight the predominant human contributions to spatiotemporally heterogenous terrestrial aridification, providing a basis for drought and flood risk management.

AB - Current knowledge of the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity has considerable uncertainty. Using Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) calculated from multi-source merged data sets, we find widespread drying in the global midlatitudes, and wetting in the northern subtropics and in spring between 45°N–65°N, during 1971–2016. Formal detection and attribution analysis shows that human forcings, especially greenhouse gases, contribute significantly to the changes in 0–10 cm SSI during August–November, and 0–100 cm during September–April. We further develop and apply an emergent constraint method on the future SSI’s signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios and trends under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5. The results show continued significant presence of human forcings and more rapid drying in 0–10 cm than 0–100 cm. Our findings highlight the predominant human contributions to spatiotemporally heterogenous terrestrial aridification, providing a basis for drought and flood risk management.

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Quantification of human contribution to soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity

Abstract

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UN SDGs

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