Projecting changes in annual hydropower generation using regional runoff data: An assessment of the United States federal hydropower plants

Shih Chieh Kao; Michael J. Sale; Moetasim Ashfaq; Rocio Uria Martinez; Dale P. Kaiser; Yaxing Wei; Noah S. Diffenbaugh

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2014.11.066

Projecting changes in annual hydropower generation using regional runoff data: An assessment of the United States federal hydropower plants

Shih Chieh Kao, Michael J. Sale, Moetasim Ashfaq, Rocio Uria Martinez, Dale P. Kaiser, Yaxing Wei, Noah S. Diffenbaugh

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Abstract

Federal hydropower plants account for approximately half of installed US conventional hydropower capacity, and are an important part of the national renewable energy portfolio. Utilizing the strong linear relationship between the US Geological Survey WaterWatch runoff and annual hydropower generation, a runoff-based assessment approach is introduced in this study to project changes in annual and regional hydropower generation in multiple power marketing areas. Future climate scenarios are developed with a series of global and regional climate models, and the model output is bias-corrected to be consistent with observed data for the recent past. Using this approach, the median change in annual generation at federal projects is projected to be -2TWh, with an estimated ensemble uncertainty of ±9TWh. Although these estimates are similar to the recently observed variability in annual hydropower generation, and may therefore appear to be manageable, significantly seasonal runoff changes are projected and it may pose significant challenges in water systems with higher limits on reservoir storage and operational flexibility. Future assessments will be improved by incorporating next-generation climate models, by closer examination of extreme events and longer-term change, and by addressing the interactions among hydropower and other water uses.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	239-250
Number of pages	12
Journal	Energy
Volume	80
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2014.11.066
State	Published - Feb 1 2015

Funding

This study was sponsored by the DOE Wind and Water Power Program . The study supported a DOE Report to Congress under Section 9505 of the SECURE Water Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-11). A second study due in 2016 under that legislation is under way. The valuable support from PMA staff, including J. Eisdorfer, B. Kuepper, E. Pytlak, L. Baker, C. Olive and T. Johnson (BPA); D. Spencer (SEPA); F. Ohlson and G. Robbins (SWPA); and M. Cowan, J. Gierard, S. Loftin, L. Cady-Hoffman, X. Gonzalez and T. Patton (SWPA), and other technical reviewers acknowledged in Ref. [34] is deeply appreciated. This paper was authored by employees of UT-Battelle, LLC, under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with DOE. Accordingly, the US Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the US Government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for US Government purposes. NSD was supported by the US DOE Integrated Assessment Research Program , Grant No. DE-SC005171 .

Funders	Funder number
U.S. Department of Energy	DE-AC05-00OR22725, DE-SC005171

Keywords

Climate change
Hydropower
Water availability

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.energy.2014.11.066

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title = "Projecting changes in annual hydropower generation using regional runoff data: An assessment of the United States federal hydropower plants",

abstract = "Federal hydropower plants account for approximately half of installed US conventional hydropower capacity, and are an important part of the national renewable energy portfolio. Utilizing the strong linear relationship between the US Geological Survey WaterWatch runoff and annual hydropower generation, a runoff-based assessment approach is introduced in this study to project changes in annual and regional hydropower generation in multiple power marketing areas. Future climate scenarios are developed with a series of global and regional climate models, and the model output is bias-corrected to be consistent with observed data for the recent past. Using this approach, the median change in annual generation at federal projects is projected to be -2TWh, with an estimated ensemble uncertainty of ±9TWh. Although these estimates are similar to the recently observed variability in annual hydropower generation, and may therefore appear to be manageable, significantly seasonal runoff changes are projected and it may pose significant challenges in water systems with higher limits on reservoir storage and operational flexibility. Future assessments will be improved by incorporating next-generation climate models, by closer examination of extreme events and longer-term change, and by addressing the interactions among hydropower and other water uses.",

keywords = "Climate change, Hydropower, Water availability",

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N2 - Federal hydropower plants account for approximately half of installed US conventional hydropower capacity, and are an important part of the national renewable energy portfolio. Utilizing the strong linear relationship between the US Geological Survey WaterWatch runoff and annual hydropower generation, a runoff-based assessment approach is introduced in this study to project changes in annual and regional hydropower generation in multiple power marketing areas. Future climate scenarios are developed with a series of global and regional climate models, and the model output is bias-corrected to be consistent with observed data for the recent past. Using this approach, the median change in annual generation at federal projects is projected to be -2TWh, with an estimated ensemble uncertainty of ±9TWh. Although these estimates are similar to the recently observed variability in annual hydropower generation, and may therefore appear to be manageable, significantly seasonal runoff changes are projected and it may pose significant challenges in water systems with higher limits on reservoir storage and operational flexibility. Future assessments will be improved by incorporating next-generation climate models, by closer examination of extreme events and longer-term change, and by addressing the interactions among hydropower and other water uses.

AB - Federal hydropower plants account for approximately half of installed US conventional hydropower capacity, and are an important part of the national renewable energy portfolio. Utilizing the strong linear relationship between the US Geological Survey WaterWatch runoff and annual hydropower generation, a runoff-based assessment approach is introduced in this study to project changes in annual and regional hydropower generation in multiple power marketing areas. Future climate scenarios are developed with a series of global and regional climate models, and the model output is bias-corrected to be consistent with observed data for the recent past. Using this approach, the median change in annual generation at federal projects is projected to be -2TWh, with an estimated ensemble uncertainty of ±9TWh. Although these estimates are similar to the recently observed variability in annual hydropower generation, and may therefore appear to be manageable, significantly seasonal runoff changes are projected and it may pose significant challenges in water systems with higher limits on reservoir storage and operational flexibility. Future assessments will be improved by incorporating next-generation climate models, by closer examination of extreme events and longer-term change, and by addressing the interactions among hydropower and other water uses.

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Projecting changes in annual hydropower generation using regional runoff data: An assessment of the United States federal hydropower plants

Abstract

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

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