TY - JOUR
T1 - Prediction, assessment of the Rift Valley fever activity in east and southern Africa 2006-2008 and possible vector control strategies
AU - Anyamba, Assaf
AU - Linthicum, Kenneth J.
AU - Small, Jennifer
AU - Britch, Seth C.
AU - Pak, Edwin
AU - De La Rocque, Stephane
AU - Formenty, Pierre
AU - Hightower, Allen W.
AU - Breiman, Robert F.
AU - Chretien, Jean Paul
AU - Tucker, Compton J.
AU - Schnabel, David
AU - Sang, Rosemary
AU - Haagsma, Karl
AU - Latham, Mark
AU - Lewandowski, Henry B.
AU - Magdi, Salih Osman
AU - Mohamed, Mohamed Ally
AU - Nguku, Patrick M.
AU - Reynes, Jean Marc
AU - Swanepoel, Robert
PY - 2010/8
Y1 - 2010/8
N2 - Historical outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) since the early 1950s have been associated with cyclical patterns of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which results in elevated and widespread rainfall over the RVF endemic areas of Africa. Using satellite measurements of global and regional elevated sea surface temperatures, elevated rainfall, and satellite derived-normalized difference vegetation index data, we predicted with lead times of 2-4 months areas where outbreaks of RVF in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa, Sudan, and Southern Africa at different time periods from September 2006 to March 2008. Predictions were confirmed by entomological field investigations of virus activity and by reported cases of RVF in human and livestock populations. This represents the first series of prospective predictions of RVF outbreaks and provides a baseline for improved early warning, control, response planning, and mitigation into the future.
AB - Historical outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) since the early 1950s have been associated with cyclical patterns of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which results in elevated and widespread rainfall over the RVF endemic areas of Africa. Using satellite measurements of global and regional elevated sea surface temperatures, elevated rainfall, and satellite derived-normalized difference vegetation index data, we predicted with lead times of 2-4 months areas where outbreaks of RVF in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa, Sudan, and Southern Africa at different time periods from September 2006 to March 2008. Predictions were confirmed by entomological field investigations of virus activity and by reported cases of RVF in human and livestock populations. This represents the first series of prospective predictions of RVF outbreaks and provides a baseline for improved early warning, control, response planning, and mitigation into the future.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=77955608815&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.4269/ajtmh.2010.09-0289
DO - 10.4269/ajtmh.2010.09-0289
M3 - Review article
C2 - 20682905
AN - SCOPUS:77955608815
SN - 0002-9637
VL - 83
SP - 43
EP - 51
JO - American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
JF - American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
IS - 2 SUPPL.
ER -