Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia

Irfan Ur Rashid; Muhammad Adnan Abid; Marisol Osman; Fred Kucharski; Moetasim Ashfaq; Antje Weisheimer; Mansour Almazroui; José Abraham Torres-Alavez; Muhammad Afzaal

doi:10.1007/s00382-024-07399-5

Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia

Irfan Ur Rashid, Muhammad Adnan Abid, Marisol Osman, Fred Kucharski, Moetasim Ashfaq, Antje Weisheimer, Mansour Almazroui, José Abraham Torres-Alavez, Muhammad Afzaal

Computational Earth Sciences Group

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

Variability of the Surface Air Temperature (SAT) over the Western South Asia (WSA) region leads to frequent heatwaves during the early summer (May-June) season. The present study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s fifth-generation seasonal prediction system, SEAS5, from 1981 to 2022 based on April initial conditions (1-month lead) to assess the SAT predictability during early summer season. The goal is to evaluate the SEAS5’s ability to predict the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related interannual variability and predictability of the SAT over WSA, which is mediated through upper-level (200-hPa) geopotential height anomalies. This teleconnection leads to anomalously warm surface conditions over the region during the negative ENSO phase, as observed in the reanalysis and SEAS5. We evaluate SEAS5 prediction skill against two observations and three reanalyses datasets. The SEAS5 SAT prediction skill is higher with high spatial resolution observations and reanalysis datasets compared to the ones with low-resolution. Overall, SEAS5 shows reasonable skill in predicting SAT and its variability over the WSA region. Moreover, the predictability of SAT during La Niña is comparable to El Niño years over the WSA region.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	9361-9375
Number of pages	15
Journal	Climate Dynamics
Volume	62
Issue number	9
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07399-5
State	Published - Sep 2024

Funding

The lead author acknowledges the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Islamabad, Pakistan, for providing the necessary resources to conduct this study. The authors also acknowledge the support of the ESP at ICTP. M. Almazroui is supported by the Institutional Fund Projects grant number (IFPIP: 1194-155-144) and acknowledges the technical and financial support from the Ministry of Education and the Deanship of Scientific Research (DSR), King Abdulaziz University (KAU) Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. M. Ashfaq is supported by the U.S. Air Force Numerical Weather Modeling Program and National Climate-Computing Research Center, located within the National Center for Computational Sciences at the ORNL, and supported under a Strategic Partnership Project 2316\u2010T849\u201008 between DOE and NOAA. M. A. Abid is supported by the UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) under the UK government\u2019s Horizon Europe project grant No. [101081460]. The authors thank two anonymous reviewers and editor for the constructive and insightful comments.

Keywords

ECMWF-SEAS5
ENSO
La Niña
Predictability
Temperature variability
WSA

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title = "Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia",

abstract = "Variability of the Surface Air Temperature (SAT) over the Western South Asia (WSA) region leads to frequent heatwaves during the early summer (May-June) season. The present study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast{\textquoteright}s fifth-generation seasonal prediction system, SEAS5, from 1981 to 2022 based on April initial conditions (1-month lead) to assess the SAT predictability during early summer season. The goal is to evaluate the SEAS5{\textquoteright}s ability to predict the El Ni{\~n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related interannual variability and predictability of the SAT over WSA, which is mediated through upper-level (200-hPa) geopotential height anomalies. This teleconnection leads to anomalously warm surface conditions over the region during the negative ENSO phase, as observed in the reanalysis and SEAS5. We evaluate SEAS5 prediction skill against two observations and three reanalyses datasets. The SEAS5 SAT prediction skill is higher with high spatial resolution observations and reanalysis datasets compared to the ones with low-resolution. Overall, SEAS5 shows reasonable skill in predicting SAT and its variability over the WSA region. Moreover, the predictability of SAT during La Ni{\~n}a is comparable to El Ni{\~n}o years over the WSA region.",

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author = "Rashid, {Irfan Ur} and Abid, {Muhammad Adnan} and Marisol Osman and Fred Kucharski and Moetasim Ashfaq and Antje Weisheimer and Mansour Almazroui and Torres-Alavez, {Jos{\'e} Abraham} and Muhammad Afzaal",

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AU - Ashfaq, Moetasim

AU - Weisheimer, Antje

AU - Almazroui, Mansour

AU - Torres-Alavez, José Abraham

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N2 - Variability of the Surface Air Temperature (SAT) over the Western South Asia (WSA) region leads to frequent heatwaves during the early summer (May-June) season. The present study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s fifth-generation seasonal prediction system, SEAS5, from 1981 to 2022 based on April initial conditions (1-month lead) to assess the SAT predictability during early summer season. The goal is to evaluate the SEAS5’s ability to predict the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related interannual variability and predictability of the SAT over WSA, which is mediated through upper-level (200-hPa) geopotential height anomalies. This teleconnection leads to anomalously warm surface conditions over the region during the negative ENSO phase, as observed in the reanalysis and SEAS5. We evaluate SEAS5 prediction skill against two observations and three reanalyses datasets. The SEAS5 SAT prediction skill is higher with high spatial resolution observations and reanalysis datasets compared to the ones with low-resolution. Overall, SEAS5 shows reasonable skill in predicting SAT and its variability over the WSA region. Moreover, the predictability of SAT during La Niña is comparable to El Niño years over the WSA region.

AB - Variability of the Surface Air Temperature (SAT) over the Western South Asia (WSA) region leads to frequent heatwaves during the early summer (May-June) season. The present study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast’s fifth-generation seasonal prediction system, SEAS5, from 1981 to 2022 based on April initial conditions (1-month lead) to assess the SAT predictability during early summer season. The goal is to evaluate the SEAS5’s ability to predict the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related interannual variability and predictability of the SAT over WSA, which is mediated through upper-level (200-hPa) geopotential height anomalies. This teleconnection leads to anomalously warm surface conditions over the region during the negative ENSO phase, as observed in the reanalysis and SEAS5. We evaluate SEAS5 prediction skill against two observations and three reanalyses datasets. The SEAS5 SAT prediction skill is higher with high spatial resolution observations and reanalysis datasets compared to the ones with low-resolution. Overall, SEAS5 shows reasonable skill in predicting SAT and its variability over the WSA region. Moreover, the predictability of SAT during La Niña is comparable to El Niño years over the WSA region.

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Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia

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Keywords

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