Potential carbon emissions dominated by carbon dioxide from thawed permafrost soils

Christina Sch'del; Martin K.F. Bader; Edward A.G. Schuur; Christina Biasi; Rosvel Bracho; Petr Capek; Sarah De Baets; Katerina Diáková; Jessica Ernakovich; Cristian Estop-Aragones; David E. Graham; Iain P. Hartley; Colleen M. Iversen; Evan Kane; Christian Knoblauch; Massimo Lupascu; Pertti J. Martikainen; Susan M. Natali; Richard J. Norby; Jonathan A. O'Donnell; Taniya Roy Chowdhury; Hana Šantrucková; Gaius Shaver; Victoria L. Sloan; Claire C. Treat; Merritt R. Turetsky; Mark P. Waldro; Kimberly P. Wickland

doi:10.1038/nclimate3054

Potential carbon emissions dominated by carbon dioxide from thawed permafrost soils

Christina Sch'del, Martin K.F. Bader, Edward A.G. Schuur, Christina Biasi, Rosvel Bracho, Petr Capek, Sarah De Baets, Katerina Diáková, Jessica Ernakovich, Cristian Estop-Aragones, David E. Graham, Iain P. Hartley, Colleen M. Iversen, Evan Kane, Christian Knoblauch, Massimo Lupascu, Pertti J. Martikainen, Susan M. Natali, Richard J. Norby, Jonathan A. O'DonnellTaniya Roy Chowdhury, Hana Šantrucková, Gaius Shaver, Victoria L. Sloan, Claire C. Treat, Merritt R. Turetsky, Mark P. Waldro, Kimberly P. Wickland

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

282 Scopus citations

Abstract

Increasing temperatures in northern high latitudes are causing permafrost to thaw, making large amounts of previously frozen organic matter vulnerable to microbial decomposition. Permafrost thaw also creates a fragmented landscape of drier and wetter soil conditions that determine the amount and form (carbon dioxide (CO₂), or methane (CH 4)) of carbon (C) released to the atmosphere. The rate and form of C release control the magnitude of the permafrost C feedback, so their relative contribution with a warming climate remains unclear. We quantified the effect of increasing temperature and changes from aerobic to anaerobic soil conditions using 25 soil incubation studies from the permafrost zone. Here we show, using two separate meta-analyses, that a 10 °C increase in incubation temperature increased C release by a factor of 2.0 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.8 to 2.2). Under aerobic incubation conditions, soils released 3.4 (95% CI, 2.2 to 5.2) times more C than under anaerobic conditions. Even when accounting for the higher heat trapping capacity of CH 4, soils released 2.3 (95% CI, 1.5 to 3.4) times more C under aerobic conditions. These results imply that permafrost ecosystems thawing under aerobic conditions and releasing CO₂ will strengthen the permafrost C feedback more than waterlogged systems releasing CO₂ and CH 4 for a given amount of C.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	950-953
Number of pages	4
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	6
Issue number	10
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3054
State	Published - Sep 28 2016

Funding

We would like to thank B. Robinson for assistance with meta-data extraction and J. Barta and I. Kohoutova for help with generating incubation data. Financial support was provided by the National Science Foundation Vulnerability of Permafrost Carbon Research Coordination Network Grant no. 955713 with continued support from the National Science Foundation Research Synthesis, and Knowledge Transfer in a Changing Arctic: Science Support for the Study of Environmental Arctic Change Grant no. 1331083. Author contributions were also supported by grants to individuals: Department of Energy, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, Terrestrial Ecosystem Science (TES) Program (DE-SC0006982) to E.A.G.S.; UK Natural Environment Research Council funding to I.P.H. and C.E.-A. (NE/K000179/1); German Research Foundation (DFG, Excellence cluster CliSAP) to C.K.; Department of Ecosystem Biology, Grant agency of South Bohemian University, GAJU project no. 146/2013/P and GAJU project no. 146/2013/D to H.S.; National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs (1312402) to S.M.N.; National Science Foundation Division of Environmental Biology (0423385) and National Science Foundation Division of Environmental Biology (1026843), both to the Marine Biological Laboratory,Woods Hole, Massachusetts; additionally, the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is supported by the Biological and Environmental Research programme in the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science. Oak Ridge National Laboratory is managed by UT-Battelle, LLC, for the DOE under Contract no. DE-AC05-00OR22725. Support for C.B. came from European Union (FP-7-ENV-2011, project PAGE21, contract no. 282700), Academy of Finland (project CryoN, decision no. 132 045), Academy of Finland (project COUP, decision no. 291691; part of the European Union Joint Programming Initiative, JPI Climate), strategic funding of the University of Eastern Finland (project FiWER) and Maj and Tor Nessling Foundation and for P.J.M. from Nordic Center of Excellence (project DeFROST).

Funders	Funder number
European Union Joint Programming Initiative
GAJU	146/2013/D, 146/2013/P
National Science Foundation Division of Environmental Biology	0423385, 1026843
Nordic Center of Excellence
South Bohemian University
National Science Foundation	1354370, 1331083, 1026415, 955713, 1354007, 1331100
U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Polar Programs	1312402
California Department of Fish and Game
Office of Science
Biological and Environmental Research	DE-SC0006982
Oak Ridge National Laboratory	DE-AC05-00OR22725
Itä-Suomen Yliopisto
Natural Environment Research Council	NE/K000179/1
European Commission	282700, FP-7-ENV-2011
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
Academy of Finland	291691, 132 045
Maj ja Tor Nesslingin Säätiö

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Sch'del, C., Bader, M. K. F., Schuur, E. A. G., Biasi, C., Bracho, R., Capek, P., De Baets, S., Diáková, K., Ernakovich, J., Estop-Aragones, C., Graham, D. E., Hartley, I. P., Iversen, C. M., Kane, E., Knoblauch, C., Lupascu, M., Martikainen, P. J., Natali, S. M., Norby, R. J., ... Wickland, K. P. (2016). Potential carbon emissions dominated by carbon dioxide from thawed permafrost soils. Nature Climate Change, 6(10), 950-953. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3054

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abstract = "Increasing temperatures in northern high latitudes are causing permafrost to thaw, making large amounts of previously frozen organic matter vulnerable to microbial decomposition. Permafrost thaw also creates a fragmented landscape of drier and wetter soil conditions that determine the amount and form (carbon dioxide (CO2), or methane (CH 4)) of carbon (C) released to the atmosphere. The rate and form of C release control the magnitude of the permafrost C feedback, so their relative contribution with a warming climate remains unclear. We quantified the effect of increasing temperature and changes from aerobic to anaerobic soil conditions using 25 soil incubation studies from the permafrost zone. Here we show, using two separate meta-analyses, that a 10 °C increase in incubation temperature increased C release by a factor of 2.0 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.8 to 2.2). Under aerobic incubation conditions, soils released 3.4 (95% CI, 2.2 to 5.2) times more C than under anaerobic conditions. Even when accounting for the higher heat trapping capacity of CH 4, soils released 2.3 (95% CI, 1.5 to 3.4) times more C under aerobic conditions. These results imply that permafrost ecosystems thawing under aerobic conditions and releasing CO2 will strengthen the permafrost C feedback more than waterlogged systems releasing CO2 and CH 4 for a given amount of C.",

author = "Christina Sch'del and Bader, {Martin K.F.} and Schuur, {Edward A.G.} and Christina Biasi and Rosvel Bracho and Petr Capek and {De Baets}, Sarah and Katerina Di{\'a}kov{\'a} and Jessica Ernakovich and Cristian Estop-Aragones and Graham, {David E.} and Hartley, {Iain P.} and Iversen, {Colleen M.} and Evan Kane and Christian Knoblauch and Massimo Lupascu and Martikainen, {Pertti J.} and Natali, {Susan M.} and Norby, {Richard J.} and O'Donnell, {Jonathan A.} and Chowdhury, {Taniya Roy} and Hana {\v S}antruckov{\'a} and Gaius Shaver and Sloan, {Victoria L.} and Treat, {Claire C.} and Turetsky, {Merritt R.} and Waldro, {Mark P.} and Wickland, {Kimberly P.}",

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Sch'del, C, Bader, MKF, Schuur, EAG, Biasi, C, Bracho, R, Capek, P, De Baets, S, Diáková, K, Ernakovich, J, Estop-Aragones, C, Graham, DE, Hartley, IP, Iversen, CM, Kane, E, Knoblauch, C, Lupascu, M, Martikainen, PJ, Natali, SM, Norby, RJ, O'Donnell, JA, Chowdhury, TR, Šantrucková, H, Shaver, G, Sloan, VL, Treat, CC, Turetsky, MR, Waldro, MP & Wickland, KP 2016, 'Potential carbon emissions dominated by carbon dioxide from thawed permafrost soils', Nature Climate Change, vol. 6, no. 10, pp. 950-953. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3054

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AU - Sch'del, Christina

AU - Bader, Martin K.F.

AU - Schuur, Edward A.G.

AU - Biasi, Christina

AU - Bracho, Rosvel

AU - Capek, Petr

AU - De Baets, Sarah

AU - Diáková, Katerina

AU - Ernakovich, Jessica

AU - Estop-Aragones, Cristian

AU - Graham, David E.

AU - Hartley, Iain P.

AU - Iversen, Colleen M.

AU - Kane, Evan

AU - Knoblauch, Christian

AU - Lupascu, Massimo

AU - Martikainen, Pertti J.

AU - Natali, Susan M.

AU - Norby, Richard J.

AU - O'Donnell, Jonathan A.

AU - Chowdhury, Taniya Roy

AU - Šantrucková, Hana

AU - Shaver, Gaius

AU - Sloan, Victoria L.

AU - Treat, Claire C.

AU - Turetsky, Merritt R.

AU - Waldro, Mark P.

AU - Wickland, Kimberly P.

PY - 2016/9/28

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N2 - Increasing temperatures in northern high latitudes are causing permafrost to thaw, making large amounts of previously frozen organic matter vulnerable to microbial decomposition. Permafrost thaw also creates a fragmented landscape of drier and wetter soil conditions that determine the amount and form (carbon dioxide (CO2), or methane (CH 4)) of carbon (C) released to the atmosphere. The rate and form of C release control the magnitude of the permafrost C feedback, so their relative contribution with a warming climate remains unclear. We quantified the effect of increasing temperature and changes from aerobic to anaerobic soil conditions using 25 soil incubation studies from the permafrost zone. Here we show, using two separate meta-analyses, that a 10 °C increase in incubation temperature increased C release by a factor of 2.0 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.8 to 2.2). Under aerobic incubation conditions, soils released 3.4 (95% CI, 2.2 to 5.2) times more C than under anaerobic conditions. Even when accounting for the higher heat trapping capacity of CH 4, soils released 2.3 (95% CI, 1.5 to 3.4) times more C under aerobic conditions. These results imply that permafrost ecosystems thawing under aerobic conditions and releasing CO2 will strengthen the permafrost C feedback more than waterlogged systems releasing CO2 and CH 4 for a given amount of C.

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Potential carbon emissions dominated by carbon dioxide from thawed permafrost soils

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