Polymix breeding with paternity analysis in Populus: A test for differential reproductive success (DRS) among pollen donors

Polymix breeding with paternity analysis (PMX/WPA) has been proposed as an alternative to traditional full-sib breeding and testing schemes. To fully capture the benefits of PMX/WPA, differential reproductive success (DRS) of pollen parents used in the polymix must be modest. DRS was evaluated in an operational test of PMX/WPA for a hybrid poplar breeding program. A 16-parent pollen polymix (Populus nigra L.) was used to pollinate seven clones of Populus deltoides (Bartr. ex. Marshall) under greenhouse breeding conditions. Progeny were grown out briefly and randomly sampled (357) prior to out-planting in field trials. Twenty-eight simple sequence repeat (SSR) loci were evaluated and 15 were selected for genetic characterization in small populations of three Populus spp (P. nigra, P. deltoides, and P. balsamifera spp trichocarpa Torr. & Gray). Seven loci were ultimately selected for paternity analysis of progeny. The average exclusion probability of the seven loci in P. nigra was 0.604; combined, the theoretical exclusion probability was 0.9999. However, only 95% of sampled progeny were unambiguously assigned a single paternal parent. Missing data likely accounted for most of the ambiguity. DRS was statistically significant though not prohibitive for practical utility of PMX/WPA as a breeding system. Of the 112 potential crosses in this study, 92 were represented. Eight of the 16 pollen parents contributed 83% of the progeny. Good pollen vigor, as measured by germination percent, did not ensure paternal success, but poor vigor was associated with lack of paternal success. PMX/WPA appears to be logistically and economically attractive for hybrid poplar breeding and testing.