Plant Physiological Responses to Rising CO2 Modify Simulated Daily Runoff Intensity With Implications for Global-Scale Flood Risk Assessment

Gabriel J. Kooperman; Megan D. Fowler; Forrest M. Hoffman; Charles D. Koven; Keith Lindsay; Michael S. Pritchard; Abigail L.S. Swann; James T. Randerson

doi:10.1029/2018GL079901

Plant Physiological Responses to Rising CO₂ Modify Simulated Daily Runoff Intensity With Implications for Global-Scale Flood Risk Assessment

Gabriel J. Kooperman, Megan D. Fowler, Forrest M. Hoffman, Charles D. Koven, Keith Lindsay, Michael S. Pritchard, Abigail L.S. Swann, James T. Randerson

Computational Earth Sciences Group

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

25 Scopus citations

Abstract

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of flooding events and, thus, the risks of flood-related mortality and infrastructure damage. Global-scale assessments of future flooding from Earth system models based only on precipitation changes neglect important processes that occur within the land surface, particularly plant physiological responses to rising CO₂. Higher CO₂ can reduce stomatal conductance and transpiration, which may lead to increased soil moisture and runoff in some regions, promoting flooding even without changes in precipitation. Here we assess the relative impacts of plant physiological and radiative greenhouse effects on changes in daily runoff intensity over tropical continents using the Community Earth System Model. We find that extreme percentile rates increase significantly more than mean runoff in response to higher CO₂. Plant physiological effects have a small impact on precipitation intensity but are a dominant driver of runoff intensification, contributing to one half of the 99th and one third of the 99.9th percentile runoff intensity changes.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	12,457-12,466
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	45
Issue number	22
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079901
State	Published - Nov 28 2018

Funding

G. J. K. and J. T. R. acknowledge support from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (GBMF3269), UC Irvine's Office of Research, and NASA's SMAP program. C. D. K., F. M. H., M. D. F., M. S. P., and J. T. R. acknowledge support from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research programs. The DOE support includes funding from the Regional and Global Climate Modeling program through the Reducing Uncertainties in Biogeochemical Interactions through Synthesis and Computation (RUBISCO) Scientific Focus Area and from the Terrestrial Ecosystem Sciences program through the Next Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE)—Tropics as well as the Early Career Award Program (DE-SC0012152). K. L. acknowledges support from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), which is sponsored by the US National Science Foundation (NSF). A. L. S. S. acknowledges support from the NSF (AGS-1321745 and AGS-1553715). CESM development is led by NCAR and supported by NSF and DOE. CESM simulations were run and archived at the NCAR Computational and Information Systems Laboratory on Yellowstone (P36271028). This experiment branched from CMIP5 ESM simulations that are available on the Earth System Grid: Full (1pctCO2, https://doi.org/10.1594/WDCC/CMIP5.NFCBc1), Radiation (esmFdbk1, https://doi.org/10.1594/WDCC/CMIP5.NFCBe1), and Physiology (esmFixClim1, https://doi.org/10.1594/WDCC/CMIP5.NFCBx1). The extended daily output needed to recreate the figures in the manuscript are available at http://kooperman.uga.edu/grl2018 or on request from the corresponding author. G. J. K. and J. T. R. acknowledge support from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (GBMF3269), UC Irvine’s Office of Research, and NASA’s SMAP program. C. D. K., F. M. H., M. D. F., M. S. P., and J. T. R. acknowledge support from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research programs. The DOE support includes funding from the Regional and Global Climate Modeling program through the Reducing Uncertainties in Biogeochemical Interactions through Synthesis and Computation (RUBISCO) Scientific Focus Area and from the Terrestrial Ecosystem Sciences program through the Next Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE)—Tropics as well as the Early Career Award Program (DE-SC0012152). K. L. acknowledges support from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), which is sponsored by the US National Science Foundation (NSF). A. L. S. S. acknowledges support from the NSF (AGS-1321745 and AGS-1553715). CESM development is led by NCAR and supported by NSF and DOE. CESM simulations were run and archived at the NCAR Computational and Information Systems Laboratory on Yellowstone (P36271028). This experiment branched from CMIP5 ESM simulations that are available on the Earth System Grid: Full (1pctCO2, https://doi.org/10.1594/WDCC/CMIP5. NFCBc1), Radiation (esmFdbk1, https:// doi.org/10.1594/WDCC/CMIP5.NFCBe1), and Physiology (esmFixClim1, https:// doi.org/10.1594/WDCC/CMIP5.NFCBx1). The extended daily output needed to recreate the figures in the manuscript are available at http://kooperman.uga. edu/grl2018 or on request from the corresponding author.

Funders	Funder number
Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research programs	DE-SC0012152
UC Irvine's Office of Research
UC Irvine’s Office of Research
National Science Foundation	AGS-1553715, P36271028, AGS-1321745, esmFixClim1, 1pctCO2
U.S. Department of Energy
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation	GBMF3269
National Center for Atmospheric Research

Keywords

Earth system model
climate change
flooding
precipitation
runoff
stomatal conductance

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1029/2018GL079901

Cite this

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title = "Plant Physiological Responses to Rising CO2 Modify Simulated Daily Runoff Intensity With Implications for Global-Scale Flood Risk Assessment",

abstract = "Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of flooding events and, thus, the risks of flood-related mortality and infrastructure damage. Global-scale assessments of future flooding from Earth system models based only on precipitation changes neglect important processes that occur within the land surface, particularly plant physiological responses to rising CO2. Higher CO2 can reduce stomatal conductance and transpiration, which may lead to increased soil moisture and runoff in some regions, promoting flooding even without changes in precipitation. Here we assess the relative impacts of plant physiological and radiative greenhouse effects on changes in daily runoff intensity over tropical continents using the Community Earth System Model. We find that extreme percentile rates increase significantly more than mean runoff in response to higher CO2. Plant physiological effects have a small impact on precipitation intensity but are a dominant driver of runoff intensification, contributing to one half of the 99th and one third of the 99.9th percentile runoff intensity changes.",

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T1 - Plant Physiological Responses to Rising CO2 Modify Simulated Daily Runoff Intensity With Implications for Global-Scale Flood Risk Assessment

AU - Kooperman, Gabriel J.

AU - Fowler, Megan D.

AU - Hoffman, Forrest M.

AU - Koven, Charles D.

AU - Lindsay, Keith

AU - Pritchard, Michael S.

AU - Swann, Abigail L.S.

AU - Randerson, James T.

PY - 2018/11/28

Y1 - 2018/11/28

N2 - Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of flooding events and, thus, the risks of flood-related mortality and infrastructure damage. Global-scale assessments of future flooding from Earth system models based only on precipitation changes neglect important processes that occur within the land surface, particularly plant physiological responses to rising CO2. Higher CO2 can reduce stomatal conductance and transpiration, which may lead to increased soil moisture and runoff in some regions, promoting flooding even without changes in precipitation. Here we assess the relative impacts of plant physiological and radiative greenhouse effects on changes in daily runoff intensity over tropical continents using the Community Earth System Model. We find that extreme percentile rates increase significantly more than mean runoff in response to higher CO2. Plant physiological effects have a small impact on precipitation intensity but are a dominant driver of runoff intensification, contributing to one half of the 99th and one third of the 99.9th percentile runoff intensity changes.

AB - Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of flooding events and, thus, the risks of flood-related mortality and infrastructure damage. Global-scale assessments of future flooding from Earth system models based only on precipitation changes neglect important processes that occur within the land surface, particularly plant physiological responses to rising CO2. Higher CO2 can reduce stomatal conductance and transpiration, which may lead to increased soil moisture and runoff in some regions, promoting flooding even without changes in precipitation. Here we assess the relative impacts of plant physiological and radiative greenhouse effects on changes in daily runoff intensity over tropical continents using the Community Earth System Model. We find that extreme percentile rates increase significantly more than mean runoff in response to higher CO2. Plant physiological effects have a small impact on precipitation intensity but are a dominant driver of runoff intensification, contributing to one half of the 99th and one third of the 99.9th percentile runoff intensity changes.

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KW - climate change

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KW - stomatal conductance

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