ORNL Input to GDSA Repository Systems Analysis FY21

This document satisfies the M3 milestone M3SF-21OR010304082 titled “ORNL Input to GDSA Repository Systems.” This document describes the current status of Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL’s) efforts related to analyses of dual-purpose canister (DPC) disposal in unsaturated alluvium with a focus on thermal hydrological constraints on criticality timing and power output. This analysis updates previous analyses of thermal hydrological constraints on timing and power output of a potential criticality event in Dual-Purpose Canisters (DPCs) in a hypothetical repository in unsaturated alluvium using a more realistic representation of heat transport inside dry DPCs. PFLOTRAN was used for the simulations of multiphase thermal hydrology near a single DPC. The scenario considers a DPC failure at 9000 years, allowing water to enter and eventually fill the DPC. Once the DPC is filled to a level that could support a criticality event, different values for criticality power output were added to the decay heat. The main objective is to bound the power output that could be produced by a criticality event without driving water out of the package. For the conditions analyzed here, following a package breach, the alluvial formation could supply enough water to allow enough accumulation in the DPC to support a criticality event. However, the power output that would be generated is limited to modest values by loss of water moderator due to evaporation and vapor diffusion. In the reference case scenario, the DPC would not start to fill with water until about 16,000 years post closure and would not fill to a level that allows a criticality event until approximately 25,000 years post closure. The long-term average power output that could be sustained without driving off the water and terminating the criticality event is limited to approximately 100 W. Sensitivity to assumed conditions and parameters in the reference case, especially the deep percolation rate, need to be addressed but could not be undertaken because of numerical failures of the PFLOTRAN code running in general mode in the dry conditions of an unsaturated alluvium repository