Abstract
Econometric and linear programming models were used to evaluate petroleum markets during a politically based disruption and, alternatively, during a military confrontation in 1995. The market scenarios were characterized by a substantial loss of exports from the Persian Gulf region. The hypothetical disruptions resulted in substantially higher prices and reduced supply and demand of refined products, especially fuels for transportation. Oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve mitigated the impacts, though the International Energy Agency's oil sharing agreement was not a factor.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 204-210 |
| Number of pages | 7 |
| Journal | Energy Economics |
| Volume | 12 |
| Issue number | 3 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Jul 1990 |
| Externally published | Yes |
Funding
Juanita Hunt was the key person in word processing and putting the pieces of the paper together. Her contribution is gratefully acknowledged. The authors gratefully acknowledge sponsorship through the Mobility Fuels Technology Program of the US Navy Energy and Natural Resources Office, Office of Naval Research under the guidance of Alan Roberts. Computer resources were provided by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Keywords
- Modelling
- Oil market forecast
- Supply disruption