Abstract
Tall deciduous shrubs are critically important to carbon and nutrient cycling in high-latitude ecosystems. As Arctic regions warm, shrubs expand heterogeneously across their ranges, including within unburned terrain experiencing isometric gradients of warming. To constrain the effects of widespread shrub expansion in terrestrial and Earth System Models, improved knowledge of local-to-regional scale patterns, rates, and controls on decadal shrub expansion is required. Using fine-scale remote sensing, we modeled the drivers of patch-scale tall-shrub expansion over 68 years across the central Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Models show the heterogeneous patterns of tall-shrub expansion are not only predictable but have an upper limit defined by permafrost, climate, and edaphic gradients, two-thirds of which have yet to be colonized. These observations suggest that increased nitrogen inputs from nitrogen-fixing alders contributed to a positive feedback that advanced overall tall-shrub expansion. These findings will be useful for constraining and projecting vegetation-climate feedbacks in the Arctic.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 421 |
| Journal | Communications Earth and Environment |
| Volume | 4 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Dec 2023 |
Funding
This research was supported by the National Science Foundation’s Environmental Engineering Program (EnvE-1928048 to MJL) and the Department of Energy’s Biological and Environmental Research Program (DE-SC0021094 to JMF and MJL). VGS is supported by the NGEE Arctic project which is funded through the US Department of Energy’s Biological and Environmental Research Program. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Geospatial support for this work provided by the Polar Geospatial Center under NSF-OPP awards 1043681 and 1559691. Portions of this document include intellectual property of Esri and its licensors and are used under license. Copyright © 2023 Esri and its licensors. All rights reserved. This research was supported by the National Science Foundation’s Environmental Engineering Program (EnvE-1928048 to MJL) and the Department of Energy’s Biological and Environmental Research Program (DE-SC0021094 to JMF and MJL). VGS is supported by the NGEE Arctic project which is funded through the US Department of Energy’s Biological and Environmental Research Program. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Geospatial support for this work provided by the Polar Geospatial Center under NSF-OPP awards 1043681 and 1559691. Portions of this document include intellectual property of Esri and its licensors and are used under license. Copyright © 2023 Esri and its licensors. All rights reserved.