Abstract
Study region: The Dnieper and Dniester Rivers of Ukraine. Study focus: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has caused disruptions to electricity generation, of which hydroelectric sources contribute approximately 9 % to the country's needs. With the takeover of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant by enemy forces, the loss of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam, and the future impacts of the conflict on electricity generation unclear, it may be valuable for the Ukrainian government to better understand how it could leverage hydroelectric power sources in the near future. Unfortunately, measurements of river discharge throughout Ukraine ceased data collection in the late 1980’s to early 1990’s. To address this data gap, we developed a protocol that combined satellite-based time-series measurements of river width at seven locations throughout Ukraine from 2013 to 2023 with reanalysis data, climate-model predictions, and hydrologic models to both provide a means of monitoring a proxy for near-real-time discharge and also predict near-term (i.e., 2023–2030) hydrologic patterns for the region. New hydrological insights for the region: We ran new algorithms on 144 WorldView-2 and WorldView-3 satellite images to map rivers and extract width, one of which was validated against river gauge data located along the same river but in a neighboring country. Hydrologic models using two climate scenarios found minimal change in annual discharge at all sites, but magnitude and timing of peak discharge showed a moderate trend. The results suggest that hydropower is underutilized in Ukraine.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 102518 |
| Journal | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| Volume | 60 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Aug 2025 |
Funding
This work was supported by the project Tracking Disturbance Signals Along River Networks sponsored by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program of Oak Ridge National Laboratory, managed by UT-Battelle, LLC, for the U. S. Department of Energy. Additional support was provided by the Watershed Dynamics and Evolution (WaDE) Science Focus Area at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the IDEAS-Watersheds project. The authors would like to thank Dr. Ethan Coon for his guidance and support throughout the project. The authors declare no conflicts of interest. Satellite imagery data were acquired through NextView License and cannot be shared publicly, but are available for purchase from DigitalGlobe or acquisition through license. The code for these algorithms is business-sensitive and not publicly available. Data sources for the hydrologic analyses have been cited in the paper and the data is publicly available. Selected data and Python scripts needed to download large datasets and reproduce the analyses and figures in this study are available through FigShare: https://figshare.com/s/60990e2dafe4530570e0 This work was supported by the project Tracking Disturbance Signals Along River Networks sponsored by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program of Oak Ridge National Laboratory, managed by UT-Battelle, LLC , for the U. S. Department of Energy . Additional support was provided by the Watershed Dynamics and Evolution (WaDE) Science Focus Area at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the IDEAS-Watersheds project . The authors would like to thank Dr. Ethan Coon for his guidance and support throughout the project. The authors declare no conflicts of interest.
Keywords
- Discharge
- Hydroelectric
- River
- Satellite
- WorldView