Abstract
We propose a population dynamics model for quantifying the effects of polling data on the outcome of multi-party elections decided by a majority-rule voting process. We divide the population into two groups: committed voters impervious to polling data, and susceptible voters whose decision to vote is influenced by data, depending on its reliability. This population-based approach to modeling the process sidesteps the problem of upscaling models based upon the choices made by individuals. We find releasing poll data is not advantageous to leading candidates, but it can be exploited by those closely trailing. The analysis identifies the particular type of voting impetus at play in different stages of an election and could help strategists optimize their influence on susceptible voters.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 395-420 |
| Number of pages | 26 |
| Journal | Public Choice |
| Volume | 140 |
| Issue number | 3-4 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - 2009 |
Funding
Acknowledgements The authors want to thank the anonymous referees as well as the Editor ways to improve the presentation of this paper. We also thank Prof. M. Munger for suggesting improvements that made the paper more accessible, as well as I. Pace Restrepo for editorial assistance. JMR wishes to thank the Applied Mathematics Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory: their kind hospitality made this study possible. RCR received support from the National Science Foundation’s Graduate Research Fellowship.
Keywords
- Head-to-head
- Landslide
- Polling
- Sequential voting
- Voting