Abstract
The Jemez Mountains salamander (Plethodon neomexicanus; hereafter JMS) is an endangered salamander restricted to the Jemez Mountains in north-central New Mexico, United States. This strictly terrestrial and lungless species requires moist surface conditions for activities such as mating and foraging. Threats to its current habitat include fire suppression and ensuing severe fires, changes in forest composition, habitat fragmentation, and climate change. Forest composition changes resulting from reduced fire frequency and increased tree density suggest that its current aboveground habitat does not mirror its historically successful habitat regime. However, because of its limited habitat area and underground behavior, we hypothesized that geology and topography might play a significant role in the current distribution of the salamander. We modeled the distribution of the JMS using a machine learning algorithm to assess how geology, topography, and climate variables influence its distribution. The best habitat suitability model indicates that geology type and maximum winter temperature (November to March) were most important in predicting the distribution of the salamander (23.5% and 50.3% permutation importance, respectively). Minimum winter temperature was also an important variable (21.4%), suggesting this also plays a role in salamander habitat. Our habitat suitability map reveals low uncertainty in model predictions, and we found slight discrepancies between the designated critical habitat and the most suitable areas for the JMS. Because geological features are important to its distribution, we recommend that geological and topographical data are considered, both during survey design and in the description of localities of JMS records once detected.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | e9161 |
| Journal | Ecology and Evolution |
| Volume | 12 |
| Issue number | 8 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Aug 2022 |
| Externally published | Yes |
Funding
The authors thank Morgan Gorris at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) for her help in the model selection process. They thank the following for early discussions in the research design and project support: Jesse Berryhill (LANL), Marjorie Wright (LANL), Rick Kelley (LANL, retired), and Michelle Christman & Susan Pruitt from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The authors further thank Sandy Hurlocker and Lynn Bjorklund of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Santa Fe National Forest, Española Ranger District for permitted land access for scientific research within select regions of critical habitat for the JMS. Funding for this work was provided through the LANL Seismic Hazards Program, currently under the Associate Laboratory Directorate for Facilities and Operations. The authors extend sincere thanks to Michael Salmon (LANL) for his support and advocacy of this work. LANL is managed by Triad National Security, LLC, under Contract No. 89233218CNA000001. This work is unclassified and approved for public release (LA‐UR‐21‐31789). The authors thank Morgan Gorris at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) for her help in the model selection process. They thank the following for early discussions in the research design and project support: Jesse Berryhill (LANL), Marjorie Wright (LANL), Rick Kelley (LANL, retired), and Michelle Christman & Susan Pruitt from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. The authors further thank Sandy Hurlocker and Lynn Bjorklund of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Santa Fe National Forest, Española Ranger District for permitted land access for scientific research within select regions of critical habitat for the JMS. Funding for this work was provided through the LANL Seismic Hazards Program, currently under the Associate Laboratory Directorate for Facilities and Operations. The authors extend sincere thanks to Michael Salmon (LANL) for his support and advocacy of this work. LANL is managed by Triad National Security, LLC, under Contract No. 89233218CNA000001. This work is unclassified and approved for public release (LA-UR-21-31789).
Keywords
- Bandelier Tuff
- Maxent
- Valles caldera
- endangered species
- habitat suitability
- species distribution model