Modeling and Simulation of Fuel Availability at Gas Stations during Extreme Events

Fuel supply serves as a crucial necessity in society; this is particularly heightened during extreme events. Such occurrences trigger a significant upsurge in fuel demand due to intensified relief and evacuation endeavors. Simultaneously, these events impose constraints on the logistical and operational facets of fuel distribution. Consequently, there is an increased need for situational awareness information regarding gas station outages. Our focus involves developing a modeling and simulation approach for estimating the time to fuel outage at gas stations. Specifically, our analysis involves calculating the duration for which each individual gas station can sustain its fuel supply under increased demand conditions, especially when there is no fresh supply of fuel reaching the stations. The analysis considers diverse demand scenarios across different vehicle distributions. To illustrate practical impacts, we present case studies originating from the implementation of our methodologies, aiding disaster preparedness efforts within the United States. The proposed solution has the potential to enhance fuel supply staging strategies and elevate the overall fuel supply management during emergence response.