Abstract
This paper investigates how California may reduce transportation greenhouse gas emissions 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 (i.e., 80in50). A Kaya framework that decomposes greenhouse gas emissions into the product of population, transport intensity, energy intensity, and carbon intensity is used to analyze emissions and mitigation options. Each transportation subsector, including light-duty, heavy-duty, aviation, rail, marine, agriculture, and off-road vehicles, is analyzed to identify specific mitigation options and understand its potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Scenario analysis shows that, while California's 2050 target is ambitious, it can be achieved in transport if a concerted effort is made to change travel behavior and the vehicles and fuels that provide mobility. While no individual ''Silver Bullet" strategy exists that can achieve the goals, a portfolio approach that combines strategies could yield success. The 80in50 scenarios show the impacts of advanced vehicle and fuels technologies as well as the role of travel demand reduction, which can significantly reduce energy and resource requirements and the level of technology development needed to meet the target.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 147-156 |
| Number of pages | 10 |
| Journal | Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment |
| Volume | 14 |
| Issue number | 3 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - May 2009 |
| Externally published | Yes |
Funding
The authors would like to thank the Sustainable Transportation Energy Pathways Program at the University of California–Davis, Institute of Transportation Studies for funding. Gratitude is also expressed to Joan Ogden, Daniel Sperling, Joshua Cunningham, Anthony Eggert, Nic Lutsey and others for support and input throughout this project. This paper was much improved thanks to the editor of TRD and two anonymous reviewers. Also, the authors acknowledge the participants of the 2007 Asilomar Conference on climate change and transportation, whose shared wisdom and dialogue spawned this research effort. The views and opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily represent those of any sponsoring organization or outside reviewer.
| Funders | Funder number |
|---|---|
| Institute of Transportation Studies | |
| University of California–Davis |
Keywords
- Alternative fuel
- Carbon intensity
- Efficiency
- Emissions target
- Energy intensity
- Travel demand
