Linking Community-Climate Disequilibrium to Ecosystem Function

Turnover in species composition often lags behind the pace of climate change, resulting in mismatches between climate and communities. However, the impact of these community-climate disequilibria on ecosystem functions is rarely considered, and current methods for measuring disequilibria assume that species ranges were, until recently, in equilibrium with climate. Here, we develop a simple theoretical model to address both of these problems by linking community-climate disequilibrium with ecosystem functioning. We show how disequilibrium can impair functioning in the near-term even when climate change is expected to enhance functioning in the long-term. Responses are most likely to change over time in communities where turnover is slow, the impact of disequilibrium counteracts the direct effects of climate on ecosystem function, and pre-existing disequilibrium is large. These findings emphasise the importance of precise and unbiased estimates of community-climate disequilibria for improving ecological forecasts. By fitting our model to time series of both climate and ecosystem function from a metacommunity simulation, we show the potential for community-climate disequilibrium to be inferred without direct knowledge about species' distributions or climatic tolerances. We end by outlining a research agenda to apply dynamic disequilibrium concepts and test novel hypotheses across diverse ecosystems.