Lessons Learned in Employing Data Analytics to Predict Oxidation Kinetics and Spallation Behavior of High-Temperature NiCr-Based Alloys

Machine learning (ML) can offer many advantages in predicting material properties over traditional materials development methods based solely on limited experimental investigations or physical-based simulations with the capability to reduce development cost, risk, and time. However, so far, limited efforts have been made to predict alloy oxidation kinetics and spallation behavior via ML due to the lack of consistently measured and sufficient experimental data and the inherent complexity in oxidation behavior of multicomponent high-temperature alloys. A previous study reported the ability of ML to predict oxidation kinetics of NiCr-based alloys as a function of alloy composition and operating conditions. In the current work, the performance of a ML model in predicting rate constants and spallation probability was evaluated in light of the roles of the data distribution of the experimental dataset (data analytics), the alloy composition, the exposure environment and the chosen oxidation approach to extracting kinetic values from the measured mass changes (but using either a simple parabolic law or a statistical cyclic oxidation model). Potential strategies to improve the predictions and enhance the extrapolative capability of the previously trained model will be discussed.