Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles

David L. McCollum; Charlie Wilson; Michela Bevione; Samuel Carrara; Oreane Y. Edelenbosch; Johannes Emmerling; Céline Guivarch; Panagiotis Karkatsoulis; Ilkka Keppo; Volker Krey; Zhenhong Lin; Eoin Broin; Leonidas Paroussos; Hazel Pettifor; Kalai Ramea; Keywan Riahi; Fuminori Sano; Baltazar Solano Rodriguez; Detlef P. van Vuuren

doi:10.1038/s41560-018-0195-z

Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles

David L. McCollum
, Charlie Wilson
, Michela Bevione
, Samuel Carrara
, Oreane Y. Edelenbosch
, Johannes Emmerling
, Céline Guivarch
, Panagiotis Karkatsoulis
, Ilkka Keppo
, Volker Krey
, Zhenhong Lin
, Eoin Broin
, Leonidas Paroussos
, Hazel Pettifor
, Kalai Ramea
, Keywan Riahi
, Fuminori Sano
, Baltazar Solano Rodriguez
, Detlef P. van Vuuren

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

172 Scopus citations

Abstract

Burgeoning demands for mobility and private vehicle ownership undermine global efforts to reduce energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. Advanced vehicles powered by low-carbon sources of electricity or hydrogen offer an alternative to conventional fossil-fuelled technologies. Yet, despite ambitious pledges and investments by governments and automakers, it is by no means clear that these vehicles will ultimately reach mass-market consumers. Here, we develop state-of-the-art representations of consumer preferences in multiple global energy-economy models, specifically focusing on the non-financial preferences of individuals. We employ these enhanced model formulations to analyse the potential for a low-carbon vehicle revolution up to 2050. Our analysis shows that a diverse set of measures targeting vehicle buyers is necessary to drive widespread adoption of clean technologies. Carbon pricing alone is insufficient to bring low-carbon vehicles to the mass market, though it may have a supporting role in ensuring a decarbonized energy supply.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	664-673
Number of pages	10
Journal	Nature Energy
Volume	3
Issue number	8
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0195-z
State	Published - Aug 1 2018
Externally published	Yes

Funding

We acknowledge funding provided by the ADVANCE project (FP7/2007–2013, grant agreement number 308329) of the European Commission. P. Kolp, D. Huppmann and M. Strubegger of IIASA provided critical assistance with MESSAGE-Transport model development. B. Girod (ETH-Zürich) helped with IMAGE model development. N. Lutsey of The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) referred us to the most up-to-date information on AFV-supporting policies at the time of writing.

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McCollum, D. L., Wilson, C., Bevione, M., Carrara, S., Edelenbosch, O. Y., Emmerling, J., Guivarch, C., Karkatsoulis, P., Keppo, I., Krey, V., Lin, Z., Broin, E., Paroussos, L., Pettifor, H., Ramea, K., Riahi, K., Sano, F., Rodriguez, B. S., & van Vuuren, D. P. (2018). Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles. Nature Energy, 3(8), 664-673. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0195-z

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abstract = "Burgeoning demands for mobility and private vehicle ownership undermine global efforts to reduce energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. Advanced vehicles powered by low-carbon sources of electricity or hydrogen offer an alternative to conventional fossil-fuelled technologies. Yet, despite ambitious pledges and investments by governments and automakers, it is by no means clear that these vehicles will ultimately reach mass-market consumers. Here, we develop state-of-the-art representations of consumer preferences in multiple global energy-economy models, specifically focusing on the non-financial preferences of individuals. We employ these enhanced model formulations to analyse the potential for a low-carbon vehicle revolution up to 2050. Our analysis shows that a diverse set of measures targeting vehicle buyers is necessary to drive widespread adoption of clean technologies. Carbon pricing alone is insufficient to bring low-carbon vehicles to the mass market, though it may have a supporting role in ensuring a decarbonized energy supply.",

author = "McCollum, \{David L.\} and Charlie Wilson and Michela Bevione and Samuel Carrara and Edelenbosch, \{Oreane Y.\} and Johannes Emmerling and C{\'e}line Guivarch and Panagiotis Karkatsoulis and Ilkka Keppo and Volker Krey and Zhenhong Lin and Eoin Broin and Leonidas Paroussos and Hazel Pettifor and Kalai Ramea and Keywan Riahi and Fuminori Sano and Rodriguez, \{Baltazar Solano\} and \{van Vuuren\}, \{Detlef P.\}",

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doi = "10.1038/s41560-018-0195-z",

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McCollum, DL, Wilson, C, Bevione, M, Carrara, S, Edelenbosch, OY, Emmerling, J, Guivarch, C, Karkatsoulis, P, Keppo, I, Krey, V, Lin, Z, Broin, E, Paroussos, L, Pettifor, H, Ramea, K, Riahi, K, Sano, F, Rodriguez, BS & van Vuuren, DP 2018, 'Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles', Nature Energy, vol. 3, no. 8, pp. 664-673. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0195-z

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AU - McCollum, David L.

AU - Wilson, Charlie

AU - Bevione, Michela

AU - Carrara, Samuel

AU - Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.

AU - Emmerling, Johannes

AU - Guivarch, Céline

AU - Karkatsoulis, Panagiotis

AU - Keppo, Ilkka

AU - Krey, Volker

AU - Lin, Zhenhong

AU - Broin, Eoin

AU - Paroussos, Leonidas

AU - Pettifor, Hazel

AU - Ramea, Kalai

AU - Riahi, Keywan

AU - Sano, Fuminori

AU - Rodriguez, Baltazar Solano

AU - van Vuuren, Detlef P.

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Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles

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