Abstract
We propose a method for constructing bathtub models of reliability from opinion. The method is intended for reliability studies early in the design and prototyping of a new system, before data concerning reliability has become available. A stylized bathtub curve is presented for soliciting best engineering judgement from technical experts. By pooling these stylized curves, we produce data that can be used to infer parameters for a piece-wise Weibull model of reliability. A numerical example demonstrates the practicality of the method while also highlighting potential pitfalls when working with subjective data.
| Original language | English |
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| Title of host publication | 2024 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2024 |
| Publisher | Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. |
| Pages | 2452-2462 |
| Number of pages | 11 |
| ISBN (Electronic) | 9798331534202 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - 2024 |
| Event | 2024 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2024 - Orlando, United States Duration: Dec 15 2024 → Dec 18 2024 |
Publication series
| Name | Proceedings - Winter Simulation Conference |
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| ISSN (Print) | 0891-7736 |
Conference
| Conference | 2024 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2024 |
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| Country/Territory | United States |
| City | Orlando |
| Period | 12/15/24 → 12/18/24 |
Funding
This manuscript has been authored by UT-Battelle, LLC under Contract No. DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the U.S. Department of Energy. The United States Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the United States Government retains a non-exclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for United States Government purposes. The Department of Energy will provide public access to these results of federally sponsored research in accordance with the DOE Public Access Plan (http://energy.gov/downloads/doe-public-access-plan).