Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Neal T. Graham; Mohamad I. Hejazi; Min Chen; Evan G.R. Davies; James A. Edmonds; Son H. Kim; Sean W.D. Turner; Xinya Li; Chris R. Vernon; Katherine Calvin; Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm; Leon Clarke; Page Kyle; Robert Link; Pralit Patel; Abigail C. Snyder; Marshall A. Wise

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b

Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Neal T. Graham, Mohamad I. Hejazi, Min Chen, Evan G.R. Davies, James A. Edmonds, Son H. Kim, Sean W.D. Turner, Xinya Li, Chris R. Vernon, Katherine Calvin, Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm, Leon Clarke, Page Kyle, Robert Link, Pralit Patel, Abigail C. Snyder, Marshall A. Wise

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

63 Scopus citations

Abstract

Future changes in climate and socioeconomic systems will drive both the availability and use of water resources, leading to evolutions in scarcity. The contributions of both systems can be quantified individually to understand the impacts around the world, but also combined to explore how the coevolution of energy-water-land systems affects not only the driver behind water scarcity changes, but how human and climate systems interact in tandem to alter water scarcity. Here we investigate the relative contributions of climate and socioeconomic systems on water scarcity under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-Representative Concentration Pathways framework. While human systems dominate changes in water scarcity independent of socioeconomic or climate future, the sign of these changes depend particularly on the socioeconomic scenario. Under specific socioeconomic futures, human-driven water scarcity reductions occur in up to 44% of the global land area by the end of the century.

Original language	English
Article number	014007
Journal	Environmental Research Letters
Volume	15
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b
State	Published - Jan 14 2020
Externally published	Yes

Funding

Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the . Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. NOAA Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites NA14NES4320003 U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science DE-AC05-76RL01830 National Science Foundation Innovations at the Nexus of Food, Energy, and Water Systems EAR-1639327 yes � 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence

Funders	Funder number
NOAA Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites NA14NES4320003 U.S. Department of Energy	DE-AC05-76RL01830, EAR-1639327

Keywords

GCAM
human-climate interactions
shared socioeconomic pathways
water scarcity

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b

Cite this

Graham, N. T., Hejazi, M. I., Chen, M., Davies, E. G. R., Edmonds, J. A., Kim, S. H., Turner, S. W. D., Li, X., Vernon, C. R., Calvin, K., Miralles-Wilhelm, F., Clarke, L., Kyle, P., Link, R., Patel, P., Snyder, A. C., & Wise, M. A. (2020). Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Environmental Research Letters, 15(1), Article 014007. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b

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abstract = "Future changes in climate and socioeconomic systems will drive both the availability and use of water resources, leading to evolutions in scarcity. The contributions of both systems can be quantified individually to understand the impacts around the world, but also combined to explore how the coevolution of energy-water-land systems affects not only the driver behind water scarcity changes, but how human and climate systems interact in tandem to alter water scarcity. Here we investigate the relative contributions of climate and socioeconomic systems on water scarcity under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-Representative Concentration Pathways framework. While human systems dominate changes in water scarcity independent of socioeconomic or climate future, the sign of these changes depend particularly on the socioeconomic scenario. Under specific socioeconomic futures, human-driven water scarcity reductions occur in up to 44% of the global land area by the end of the century.",

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author = "Graham, {Neal T.} and Hejazi, {Mohamad I.} and Min Chen and Davies, {Evan G.R.} and Edmonds, {James A.} and Kim, {Son H.} and Turner, {Sean W.D.} and Xinya Li and Vernon, {Chris R.} and Katherine Calvin and Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm and Leon Clarke and Page Kyle and Robert Link and Pralit Patel and Snyder, {Abigail C.} and Wise, {Marshall A.}",

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doi = "10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b",

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Graham, NT, Hejazi, MI, Chen, M, Davies, EGR, Edmonds, JA, Kim, SH, Turner, SWD, Li, X, Vernon, CR, Calvin, K, Miralles-Wilhelm, F, Clarke, L, Kyle, P, Link, R, Patel, P, Snyder, AC & Wise, MA 2020, 'Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways', Environmental Research Letters, vol. 15, no. 1, 014007. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b

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AU - Graham, Neal T.

AU - Hejazi, Mohamad I.

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AU - Davies, Evan G.R.

AU - Edmonds, James A.

AU - Kim, Son H.

AU - Turner, Sean W.D.

AU - Li, Xinya

AU - Vernon, Chris R.

AU - Calvin, Katherine

AU - Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando

AU - Clarke, Leon

AU - Kyle, Page

AU - Link, Robert

AU - Patel, Pralit

AU - Snyder, Abigail C.

AU - Wise, Marshall A.

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AB - Future changes in climate and socioeconomic systems will drive both the availability and use of water resources, leading to evolutions in scarcity. The contributions of both systems can be quantified individually to understand the impacts around the world, but also combined to explore how the coevolution of energy-water-land systems affects not only the driver behind water scarcity changes, but how human and climate systems interact in tandem to alter water scarcity. Here we investigate the relative contributions of climate and socioeconomic systems on water scarcity under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways-Representative Concentration Pathways framework. While human systems dominate changes in water scarcity independent of socioeconomic or climate future, the sign of these changes depend particularly on the socioeconomic scenario. Under specific socioeconomic futures, human-driven water scarcity reductions occur in up to 44% of the global land area by the end of the century.

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Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Abstract

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

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