How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets?

D. Scolnic; R. Kessler; D. Brout; P. S. Cowperthwaite; M. Soares-Santos; J. Annis; K. Herner; H. Y. Chen; M. Sako; Z. Doctor; R. E. Butler; A. Palmese; H. T. Diehl; J. Frieman; D. E. Holz; E. Berger; R. Chornock; V. A. Villar; M. Nicholl; R. Biswas; R. Hounsell; R. J. Foley; J. Metzger; A. Rest; J. García-Bellido; A. Möller; P. Nugent; T. M.C. Abbott; F. B. Abdalla; S. Allam; K. Bechtol; A. Benoit-Lévy; E. Bertin; D. Brooks; E. Buckley-Geer; A. Carnero Rosell; M. Carrasco Kind; J. Carretero; F. J. Castander; C. E. Cunha; C. B. D'Andrea; L. N.Da Costa; C. Davis; P. Doel; A. Drlica-Wagner; T. F. Eifler; B. Flaugher; P. Fosalba; E. Gaztanaga; D. W. Gerdes; D. Gruen; R. A. Gruendl; J. Gschwend; G. Gutierrez; W. G. Hartley; K. Honscheid; D. J. James; M. W.G. Johnson; M. D. Johnson; E. Krause; K. Kuehn; S. Kuhlmann; O. Lahav; T. S. Li; M. Lima; M. A.G. Maia; M. March; J. L. Marshall; F. Menanteau; R. Miquel; E. Neilsen; A. A. Plazas; E. Sanchez; V. Scarpine; M. Schubnell; I. Sevilla-Noarbe; M. Smith; R. C. Smith; F. Sobreira; E. Suchyta; M. E.C. Swanson; G. Tarle; R. C. Thomas; D. L. Tucker; A. R. Walker

doi:10.3847/2041-8213/aa9d82

How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets?

D. Scolnic, R. Kessler, D. Brout, P. S. Cowperthwaite, M. Soares-Santos, J. Annis, K. Herner, H. Y. Chen, M. Sako, Z. Doctor, R. E. Butler, A. Palmese, H. T. Diehl, J. Frieman, D. E. Holz, E. Berger, R. Chornock, V. A. Villar, M. Nicholl, R. BiswasR. Hounsell, R. J. Foley, J. Metzger, A. Rest, J. García-Bellido, A. Möller, P. Nugent, T. M.C. Abbott, F. B. Abdalla, S. Allam, K. Bechtol, A. Benoit-Lévy, E. Bertin, D. Brooks, E. Buckley-Geer, A. Carnero Rosell, M. Carrasco Kind, J. Carretero, F. J. Castander, C. E. Cunha, C. B. D'Andrea, L. N.Da Costa, C. Davis, P. Doel, A. Drlica-Wagner, T. F. Eifler, B. Flaugher, P. Fosalba, E. Gaztanaga, D. W. Gerdes, D. Gruen, R. A. Gruendl, J. Gschwend, G. Gutierrez, W. G. Hartley, K. Honscheid, D. J. James, M. W.G. Johnson, M. D. Johnson, E. Krause, K. Kuehn, S. Kuhlmann, O. Lahav, T. S. Li, M. Lima, M. A.G. Maia, M. March, J. L. Marshall, F. Menanteau, R. Miquel, E. Neilsen, A. A. Plazas, E. Sanchez, V. Scarpine, M. Schubnell, I. Sevilla-Noarbe, M. Smith, R. C. Smith, F. Sobreira, E. Suchyta, M. E.C. Swanson, G. Tarle, R. C. Thomas, D. L. Tucker, A. R. Walker

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Abstract

The discovery of a kilonova (KN) associated with the Advanced LIGO (aLIGO)/Virgo event GW170817 opens up new avenues of multi-messenger astrophysics. Here, using realistic simulations, we provide estimates of the number of KNe that could be found in data from past, present, and future surveys without a gravitational-wave trigger. For the simulation, we construct a spectral time-series model based on the DES-GW multi-band light curve from the single known KN event, and we use an average of BNS rates from past studies of 10³Gpc^-3 yr^-1, consistent with the one event found so far. Examining past and current data sets from transient surveys, the number of KNe we expect to find for ASAS-SN, SDSS, PS1, SNLS, DES, and SMT is between 0 and 0.3. We predict the number of detections per future survey to be 8.3 from ATLAS, 10.6 from ZTF, 5.5/69 from LSST (the Deep Drilling/Wide Fast Deep), and 16.0 from WFIRST. The maximum redshift of KNe discovered for each survey is z=0.8 for WFIRST, z=0.8 for LSST, and z=0.8 for ZTF and ATLAS. This maximum redshift for WFIRST is well beyond the sensitivity of aLIGO and some future GW missions. For the LSST survey, we also provide contamination estimates from Type Ia and core-collapse supernovae: after light curve and template-matching requirements, we estimate a background of just two events. More broadly, we stress that future transient surveys should consider how to optimize their search strategies to improve their detection efficiency and to consider similar analyses for GW follow-up programs.

Original language	English
Article number	L3
Journal	Astrophysical Journal Letters
Volume	852
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8213/aa9d82
State	Published - Jan 1 2018

Funding

The DES Data Management System is supported by the NSF under grant numbers AST-1138766 and AST-1536171. This work was supported in part by the Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics at the University of Chicago through grant NSF PHY-1125897 and an endowment from the Kavli Foundation and its founder Fred Kavli. We gratefully acknowledge support from NASA grant 14-WPS14-0048. D.S. is supported by NASA through Hubble Fellowship grant HST-HF2-51383.001 awarded by the Space Telescope Science Institute, which is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., for NASA, under contract NAS 5-26555. This analysis was done using the Midway-RCC computing cluster at University of Chicago. The Berger Time-Domain Group at Harvard is supported in part by the NSF through grants AST-1411763 and AST-1714498, and by NASA through grants NNX15AE50G and NNX16AC22G. The UCSC group is supported in part by NSF grant AST– 1518052, the Gordon & Betty Moore Foundation, the Heising-Simons Foundation, generous donations from many individuals through a UCSC Giving Day grant, and from fellowships from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and the David and Lucile Packard Foundation to R.J.F. R.B. acknowledges partial support from the Washington Research Foundation Fund for Innovation in Data-Intensive Discovery and the Moore/Sloan Data Science Environments Project at the University of Washington. Funding for the DES Projects has been provided by the DOE and NSF(USA), MEC/MICINN/MINECO(Spain), STFC(UK), HEFCE(UK). NCSA(UIUC), KICP(U. Chicago), CCAPP(Ohio State), MIFPA(Texas A&M), CNPQ, FAPERJ, FINEP (Brazil), DFG(Germany) and the Collaborating Institutions in the Dark Energy Survey. The Collaborating Institutions are Argonne Lab, UC Santa Cruz, University of Cambridge, CIEMAT-Madrid, University of Chicago, University College London, DES Brazil Consortium, University of Edinburgh, ETH Zurich, Fermilab, University of Illinois, ICE (IEEC-CSIC), IFAE Barcelona, Lawrence Berkeley Lab, LMU Mnchen and the associated Excellence Cluster Universe, University of Michigan, NOAO, University of Nottingham, Ohio State University, University of Pennsylvania, University of Portsmouth, SLAC National Lab, Stanford University, University of Sussex, Texas A&M University, and the OzDES Membership Consortium. Based in part on observations at Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory, National Optical Astronomy Observatory, which is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy (AURA) under a cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation.

Funders	Funder number
Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics at the University of Chicago	PHY-1125897
MEC/MICINN/MINECO
National Science Foundation	1138766, AST-1138766, 1411763, 1125897, 1518052, 1714498, AST-1536171
National Science Foundation
David and Lucile Packard Foundation
U.S. Department of Energy
National Aeronautics and Space Administration	14-WPS14-0048, HST-HF2-51383.001
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Alfred P. Sloan Foundation
Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation
Kavli Foundation
Washington Research Foundation
University of Washington
Space Telescope Science Institute	AST– 1518052, NAS 5-26555, NNX16AC22G, NNX15AE50G, AST-1411763, AST-1714498
Space Telescope Science Institute
Heising-Simons Foundation
Science and Technology Facilities Council

Keywords

stars: neutron

Access to Document

10.3847/2041-8213/aa9d82

Cite this

Scolnic, D., Kessler, R., Brout, D., Cowperthwaite, P. S., Soares-Santos, M., Annis, J., Herner, K., Chen, H. Y., Sako, M., Doctor, Z., Butler, R. E., Palmese, A., Diehl, H. T., Frieman, J., Holz, D. E., Berger, E., Chornock, R., Villar, V. A., Nicholl, M., ... Walker, A. R. (2018). How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets? Astrophysical Journal Letters, 852(1), Article L3. https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8213/aa9d82

@article{8692b93c634249088538ae82da37a80e,

title = "How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets?",

abstract = "The discovery of a kilonova (KN) associated with the Advanced LIGO (aLIGO)/Virgo event GW170817 opens up new avenues of multi-messenger astrophysics. Here, using realistic simulations, we provide estimates of the number of KNe that could be found in data from past, present, and future surveys without a gravitational-wave trigger. For the simulation, we construct a spectral time-series model based on the DES-GW multi-band light curve from the single known KN event, and we use an average of BNS rates from past studies of 103Gpc-3 yr-1, consistent with the one event found so far. Examining past and current data sets from transient surveys, the number of KNe we expect to find for ASAS-SN, SDSS, PS1, SNLS, DES, and SMT is between 0 and 0.3. We predict the number of detections per future survey to be 8.3 from ATLAS, 10.6 from ZTF, 5.5/69 from LSST (the Deep Drilling/Wide Fast Deep), and 16.0 from WFIRST. The maximum redshift of KNe discovered for each survey is z=0.8 for WFIRST, z=0.8 for LSST, and z=0.8 for ZTF and ATLAS. This maximum redshift for WFIRST is well beyond the sensitivity of aLIGO and some future GW missions. For the LSST survey, we also provide contamination estimates from Type Ia and core-collapse supernovae: after light curve and template-matching requirements, we estimate a background of just two events. More broadly, we stress that future transient surveys should consider how to optimize their search strategies to improve their detection efficiency and to consider similar analyses for GW follow-up programs.",

keywords = "stars: neutron",

author = "D. Scolnic and R. Kessler and D. Brout and Cowperthwaite, {P. S.} and M. Soares-Santos and J. Annis and K. Herner and Chen, {H. Y.} and M. Sako and Z. Doctor and Butler, {R. E.} and A. Palmese and Diehl, {H. T.} and J. Frieman and Holz, {D. E.} and E. Berger and R. Chornock and Villar, {V. A.} and M. Nicholl and R. Biswas and R. Hounsell and Foley, {R. J.} and J. Metzger and A. Rest and J. Garc{\'i}a-Bellido and A. M{\"o}ller and P. Nugent and Abbott, {T. M.C.} and Abdalla, {F. B.} and S. Allam and K. Bechtol and A. Benoit-L{\'e}vy and E. Bertin and D. Brooks and E. Buckley-Geer and Rosell, {A. Carnero} and Kind, {M. Carrasco} and J. Carretero and Castander, {F. J.} and Cunha, {C. E.} and D'Andrea, {C. B.} and Costa, {L. N.Da} and C. Davis and P. Doel and A. Drlica-Wagner and Eifler, {T. F.} and B. Flaugher and P. Fosalba and E. Gaztanaga and Gerdes, {D. W.} and D. Gruen and Gruendl, {R. A.} and J. Gschwend and G. Gutierrez and Hartley, {W. G.} and K. Honscheid and James, {D. J.} and Johnson, {M. W.G.} and Johnson, {M. D.} and E. Krause and K. Kuehn and S. Kuhlmann and O. Lahav and Li, {T. S.} and M. Lima and Maia, {M. A.G.} and M. March and Marshall, {J. L.} and F. Menanteau and R. Miquel and E. Neilsen and Plazas, {A. A.} and E. Sanchez and V. Scarpine and M. Schubnell and I. Sevilla-Noarbe and M. Smith and Smith, {R. C.} and F. Sobreira and E. Suchyta and Swanson, {M. E.C.} and G. Tarle and Thomas, {R. C.} and Tucker, {D. L.} and Walker, {A. R.}",

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doi = "10.3847/2041-8213/aa9d82",

language = "English",

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journal = "Astrophysical Journal Letters",

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publisher = "American Astronomical Society",

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Scolnic, D, Kessler, R, Brout, D, Cowperthwaite, PS, Soares-Santos, M, Annis, J, Herner, K, Chen, HY, Sako, M, Doctor, Z, Butler, RE, Palmese, A, Diehl, HT, Frieman, J, Holz, DE, Berger, E, Chornock, R, Villar, VA, Nicholl, M, Biswas, R, Hounsell, R, Foley, RJ, Metzger, J, Rest, A, García-Bellido, J, Möller, A, Nugent, P, Abbott, TMC, Abdalla, FB, Allam, S, Bechtol, K, Benoit-Lévy, A, Bertin, E, Brooks, D, Buckley-Geer, E, Rosell, AC, Kind, MC, Carretero, J, Castander, FJ, Cunha, CE, D'Andrea, CB, Costa, LND, Davis, C, Doel, P, Drlica-Wagner, A, Eifler, TF, Flaugher, B, Fosalba, P, Gaztanaga, E, Gerdes, DW, Gruen, D, Gruendl, RA, Gschwend, J, Gutierrez, G, Hartley, WG, Honscheid, K, James, DJ, Johnson, MWG, Johnson, MD, Krause, E, Kuehn, K, Kuhlmann, S, Lahav, O, Li, TS, Lima, M, Maia, MAG, March, M, Marshall, JL, Menanteau, F, Miquel, R, Neilsen, E, Plazas, AA, Sanchez, E, Scarpine, V, Schubnell, M, Sevilla-Noarbe, I, Smith, M, Smith, RC, Sobreira, F, Suchyta, E, Swanson, MEC, Tarle, G, Thomas, RC, Tucker, DL & Walker, AR 2018, 'How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets?', Astrophysical Journal Letters, vol. 852, no. 1, L3. https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8213/aa9d82