How likely will a mode shift occur? – Evaluating the demographic and location differences between potential and existing users of sustainable transportation modes

Transportation mode shift programs do not target specific individuals. Therefore, they are less effective in terms of facilitating mode shifts among existing single-occupancy vehicle (SOV) users. Through a widespread survey-based approach, this proposal compared the demographic and location characteristics of those whose best and second-best mobility option is public transit, micromobility, and carpool and evaluate how likely existing SOV users will shift to the more sustainable mobility options. The demographics and location patterns of the carpool nudgeable audience were found to be substantially different from existing carpool users, implying a lower likelihood for them to shift mode. The results can be used by state and regional agencies with sustainability goals to develop more targeted and effective mode shift programs.