Hot droughts in the Amazon provide a window to a future hypertropical climate

Jeffrey Q. Chambers; Adriano José Nogueira Lima; Gilberto Pastorello; Bruno Oliva Gimenez; Lin Meng; Lee A. Dyer; Yanlei Feng; Cristina Santos da Silva; Regison Costa de Oliveira; Anna Weber; Charlie Koven; Robinson Negrón-Juárez; Gustavo C. Spanner; Tatiana D. Gaui; Clarissa G. Fontes; Alessandro C. de Araújo; Nate McDowell; Ruby Leung; Daniel Magnabosco Marra; Jeffrey Warren; Daisy Celestina Souza; Cynthia Wright; Kolby Jardine; Marcos Longo; Chonggang Xu; Paul V.A. Fine; Rosie A. Fisher; Javier Tomasella; Joaquim dos Santos; Niro Higuchi

doi:10.1038/s41586-025-09728-y

Hot droughts in the Amazon provide a window to a future hypertropical climate

Jeffrey Q. Chambers
, Adriano José Nogueira Lima
, Gilberto Pastorello
, Bruno Oliva Gimenez
, Lin Meng
, Lee A. Dyer
, Yanlei Feng
, Cristina Santos da Silva
, Regison Costa de Oliveira
, Anna Weber
, Charlie Koven
, Robinson Negrón-Juárez
, Gustavo C. Spanner
, Tatiana D. Gaui
, Clarissa G. Fontes
, Alessandro C. de Araújo
, Nate McDowell
, Ruby Leung
, Daniel Magnabosco Marra
, Jeffrey Warren

Daisy Celestina Souza, Cynthia Wright, Kolby Jardine, Marcos Longo, Chonggang Xu, Paul V.A. Fine, Rosie A. Fisher, Javier Tomasella, Joaquim dos Santos, Niro Higuchi

Ecosystem Processes

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

6 Scopus citations

Abstract

Tropical forests represent the warmest and wettest of Earth’s biomes, but with continued anthropogenic warming, they will be pushed to climate states with no current analogue^1,2. Droughts in the tropics are already becoming more intense as they occur at successively higher temperatures^{3, 4–5}. Here we synthesize multiple datasets to assess the effects of hot droughts on a central Amazon forest. First, a more than 30-year record of annually resolved forest demographic data from a selective logging experiment showed higher tree mortality during intense droughts, particularly among fast-growing pioneer species with low wood density. Second, analysis of ecophysiological field measurements from the 2015 and 2023 El Niño droughts identified a soil moisture threshold beyond which transpiration rates rapidly declined. As rainless days beyond this threshold continued, drought conditions intensified, increasing the potential for tree mortality from hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. Third, analyses from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 demonstrated that under high-emission scenarios, a large area of tropical forest will shift to a hotter ‘hypertropical’ climate by 2100. Last, under a hypertropical climate, temperature and moisture conditions during typical dry season months will more frequently exceed identified drought mortality thresholds, elevating the risk of forest dieback. Present-day hot droughts are harbingers of this emerging climate, offering a window for studying tropical forests under expected extreme future conditions^{6, 7–8}.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1190-1196
Number of pages	7
Journal	Nature
Volume	649
Issue number	8099
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09728-y
State	Published - Jan 29 2026

Funding

This research was supported as part of the Next Generation Ecosystem Experiments-Tropics, funded by the US DOE, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory is managed under contract no. DE-AC02-05CH11231; Los Alamos National Laboratory, under contract no. 89233218CNA000001; Oak Ridge National Laboratory, under contract no. DE-AC05-00OR22725; and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, under contract no. DE-AC05-76RL01830. Additional support was provided from the Madeiras da Amazônia project, Institutos Nacionais de Ciência e Tecnologia (INCT), Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq), Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovações (MCTI); Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Amazonas (FAPEAM); National Science Foundation (DGE-2244337); ATTO Project funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; contracts 01LB1001A and 01LK1602A); the Brazilian Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (MCTI/FINEP contract 01.11.01248.00); and the Max Planck Society. R.A.F. acknowledges funding by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation program under grant agreement no. 101003536 (ESM2025 — Earth System Models for the Future). The US Government, and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the US Government retains a non-exclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for US Government purposes.

Access to Document

10.1038/s41586-025-09728-y

Cite this

Chambers, J. Q., Nogueira Lima, A. J., Pastorello, G., Gimenez, B. O., Meng, L., Dyer, L. A., Feng, Y., Santos da Silva, C., Costa de Oliveira, R., Weber, A., Koven, C., Negrón-Juárez, R., Spanner, G. C., Gaui, T. D., Fontes, C. G., de Araújo, A. C., McDowell, N., Leung, R., Marra, D. M., ... Higuchi, N. (2026). Hot droughts in the Amazon provide a window to a future hypertropical climate. Nature, 649(8099), 1190-1196. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09728-y

@article{3355a24598f74e94a73d2d74ccf3ae55,

title = "Hot droughts in the Amazon provide a window to a future hypertropical climate",

abstract = "Tropical forests represent the warmest and wettest of Earth{\textquoteright}s biomes, but with continued anthropogenic warming, they will be pushed to climate states with no current analogue1,2. Droughts in the tropics are already becoming more intense as they occur at successively higher temperatures3, 4–5. Here we synthesize multiple datasets to assess the effects of hot droughts on a central Amazon forest. First, a more than 30-year record of annually resolved forest demographic data from a selective logging experiment showed higher tree mortality during intense droughts, particularly among fast-growing pioneer species with low wood density. Second, analysis of ecophysiological field measurements from the 2015 and 2023 El Ni{\~n}o droughts identified a soil moisture threshold beyond which transpiration rates rapidly declined. As rainless days beyond this threshold continued, drought conditions intensified, increasing the potential for tree mortality from hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. Third, analyses from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 demonstrated that under high-emission scenarios, a large area of tropical forest will shift to a hotter {\textquoteleft}hypertropical{\textquoteright} climate by 2100. Last, under a hypertropical climate, temperature and moisture conditions during typical dry season months will more frequently exceed identified drought mortality thresholds, elevating the risk of forest dieback. Present-day hot droughts are harbingers of this emerging climate, offering a window for studying tropical forests under expected extreme future conditions6, 7–8.",

author = "Chambers, \{Jeffrey Q.\} and \{Nogueira Lima\}, \{Adriano Jos{\'e}\} and Gilberto Pastorello and Gimenez, \{Bruno Oliva\} and Lin Meng and Dyer, \{Lee A.\} and Yanlei Feng and \{Santos da Silva\}, Cristina and \{Costa de Oliveira\}, Regison and Anna Weber and Charlie Koven and Robinson Negr{\'o}n-Ju{\'a}rez and Spanner, \{Gustavo C.\} and Gaui, \{Tatiana D.\} and Fontes, \{Clarissa G.\} and \{de Ara{\'u}jo\}, \{Alessandro C.\} and Nate McDowell and Ruby Leung and Marra, \{Daniel Magnabosco\} and Jeffrey Warren and \{Celestina Souza\}, Daisy and Cynthia Wright and Kolby Jardine and Marcos Longo and Chonggang Xu and Fine, \{Paul V.A.\} and Fisher, \{Rosie A.\} and Javier Tomasella and \{dos Santos\}, Joaquim and Niro Higuchi",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2025.",

year = "2026",

month = jan,

day = "29",

doi = "10.1038/s41586-025-09728-y",

language = "English",

volume = "649",

pages = "1190--1196",

journal = "Nature",

issn = "0028-0836",

publisher = "Nature Research",

number = "8099",

}

Chambers, JQ, Nogueira Lima, AJ, Pastorello, G, Gimenez, BO, Meng, L, Dyer, LA, Feng, Y, Santos da Silva, C, Costa de Oliveira, R, Weber, A, Koven, C, Negrón-Juárez, R, Spanner, GC, Gaui, TD, Fontes, CG, de Araújo, AC, McDowell, N, Leung, R, Marra, DM, Warren, J, Celestina Souza, D, Wright, C, Jardine, K, Longo, M, Xu, C, Fine, PVA, Fisher, RA, Tomasella, J, dos Santos, J & Higuchi, N 2026, 'Hot droughts in the Amazon provide a window to a future hypertropical climate', Nature, vol. 649, no. 8099, pp. 1190-1196. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09728-y

TY - JOUR

T1 - Hot droughts in the Amazon provide a window to a future hypertropical climate

AU - Chambers, Jeffrey Q.

AU - Nogueira Lima, Adriano José

AU - Pastorello, Gilberto

AU - Gimenez, Bruno Oliva

AU - Meng, Lin

AU - Dyer, Lee A.

AU - Feng, Yanlei

AU - Santos da Silva, Cristina

AU - Costa de Oliveira, Regison

AU - Weber, Anna

AU - Koven, Charlie

AU - Negrón-Juárez, Robinson

AU - Spanner, Gustavo C.

AU - Gaui, Tatiana D.

AU - Fontes, Clarissa G.

AU - de Araújo, Alessandro C.

AU - McDowell, Nate

AU - Leung, Ruby

AU - Marra, Daniel Magnabosco

AU - Warren, Jeffrey

AU - Celestina Souza, Daisy

AU - Wright, Cynthia

AU - Jardine, Kolby

AU - Longo, Marcos

AU - Xu, Chonggang

AU - Fine, Paul V.A.

AU - Fisher, Rosie A.

AU - Tomasella, Javier

AU - dos Santos, Joaquim

AU - Higuchi, Niro

PY - 2026/1/29

Y1 - 2026/1/29

N2 - Tropical forests represent the warmest and wettest of Earth’s biomes, but with continued anthropogenic warming, they will be pushed to climate states with no current analogue1,2. Droughts in the tropics are already becoming more intense as they occur at successively higher temperatures3, 4–5. Here we synthesize multiple datasets to assess the effects of hot droughts on a central Amazon forest. First, a more than 30-year record of annually resolved forest demographic data from a selective logging experiment showed higher tree mortality during intense droughts, particularly among fast-growing pioneer species with low wood density. Second, analysis of ecophysiological field measurements from the 2015 and 2023 El Niño droughts identified a soil moisture threshold beyond which transpiration rates rapidly declined. As rainless days beyond this threshold continued, drought conditions intensified, increasing the potential for tree mortality from hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. Third, analyses from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 demonstrated that under high-emission scenarios, a large area of tropical forest will shift to a hotter ‘hypertropical’ climate by 2100. Last, under a hypertropical climate, temperature and moisture conditions during typical dry season months will more frequently exceed identified drought mortality thresholds, elevating the risk of forest dieback. Present-day hot droughts are harbingers of this emerging climate, offering a window for studying tropical forests under expected extreme future conditions6, 7–8.

AB - Tropical forests represent the warmest and wettest of Earth’s biomes, but with continued anthropogenic warming, they will be pushed to climate states with no current analogue1,2. Droughts in the tropics are already becoming more intense as they occur at successively higher temperatures3, 4–5. Here we synthesize multiple datasets to assess the effects of hot droughts on a central Amazon forest. First, a more than 30-year record of annually resolved forest demographic data from a selective logging experiment showed higher tree mortality during intense droughts, particularly among fast-growing pioneer species with low wood density. Second, analysis of ecophysiological field measurements from the 2015 and 2023 El Niño droughts identified a soil moisture threshold beyond which transpiration rates rapidly declined. As rainless days beyond this threshold continued, drought conditions intensified, increasing the potential for tree mortality from hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. Third, analyses from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 demonstrated that under high-emission scenarios, a large area of tropical forest will shift to a hotter ‘hypertropical’ climate by 2100. Last, under a hypertropical climate, temperature and moisture conditions during typical dry season months will more frequently exceed identified drought mortality thresholds, elevating the risk of forest dieback. Present-day hot droughts are harbingers of this emerging climate, offering a window for studying tropical forests under expected extreme future conditions6, 7–8.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105024671039

U2 - 10.1038/s41586-025-09728-y

DO - 10.1038/s41586-025-09728-y

M3 - Article

C2 - 41372411

AN - SCOPUS:105024671039

SN - 0028-0836

VL - 649

SP - 1190

EP - 1196

JO - Nature

JF - Nature

IS - 8099

ER -

Hot droughts in the Amazon provide a window to a future hypertropical climate

Abstract

Funding

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this