Historical spatiotemporal changes in fire danger potential across biomes

Janine A. Baijnath-Rodino; Phong V.V. Le; Efi Foufoula-Georgiou; Tirtha Banerjee

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161954

Historical spatiotemporal changes in fire danger potential across biomes

Janine A. Baijnath-Rodino, Phong V.V. Le, Efi Foufoula-Georgiou, Tirtha Banerjee

Watershed Systems Modeling

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

This study 1) identifies the seasons and biomes that exhibit significant (1980–2019) changes in fire danger potential, as quantified by the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI); 2) explores what types of fire behavior potentials may be contributing to changes in fire danger potential, as quantified by the United States Energy Release Component (ERC) and the Ignition Component (IC); 3) provides spatiotemporal insight on how fire danger potential and fire behavior potential are responding in relation to changes in seasonal precipitation totals and seasonal mean air temperature across biomes. Time series of these fire potentials, as well as seasonal mean temperature, and seasonal precipitation totals are generated using data from the 0.25° ECMWF spatial resolution Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) and the Climatic Research Unit gridded Time Series (CRU TS). The Mann-Kendall test is then applied to identify significant spatiotemporal trends across each biome. Results indicate that the September–November season (SON) exhibits the greatest rate of increase in fire danger potential, followed by the June–August season (JJA), December, January–February season (DJF), and March–May season (MAM), and this is predominant over the Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forest Biome, as well as all vegetation types of the temperate biomes. Similarly, the temperate biomes experience the greatest rate of increase in fire intensity potential and ignition potential, but prevalent during the DJF and MAM seasons. Furthermore, there is a significant positive correlation between fire danger potential and seasonal mean air temperature during JJA in the Northern Hemisphere for the temperate biomes in North America and Europe, as well as the Tropical and Subtropical biomes in Africa. Our analysis provides quantitative insight as to how fire danger potential and fire behavior potential have been responding to changes in seasonal mean temperature and seasonal precipitation totals across different ecoregions around the world.

Original language	English
Article number	161954
Journal	Science of the Total Environment
Volume	870
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161954
State	Published - Apr 20 2023

Funding

Baijnath-Rodino and Banerjee acknowledge the funding support from the University of California Office of the President (UCOP) grant LFR-20-653572 (UC Lab-Fees). Banerjee also acknowledges the National Science Foundation (NSF) grants NSF-AGS-PDM-2146520 (CAREER), NSF-OISE-2114740 (AccelNet) and NSF-CPS-2209695 ; the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) grant 2021-67022-35908 (NIFA); and a cost reimbursable agreement with the USDA Forest Service 20-CR-11242306-072 . Foufoula-Georgiou acknowledges the support by the National Science Foundation (grants DMS-1839336 and ECCS-1839441 ), NASA 's Global Precipitation Measurement program (grant 80NSSC19K0684 ), and the Center for Ecosystem Climate Solutions (CECS), funded by California Strategic Growth Council 's Climate Change Research Program.

Keywords

Biomes
Drought
Fire danger potential
Fire intensity
Ignition component
Wildfires

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161954

Cite this

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title = "Historical spatiotemporal changes in fire danger potential across biomes",

abstract = "This study 1) identifies the seasons and biomes that exhibit significant (1980–2019) changes in fire danger potential, as quantified by the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI); 2) explores what types of fire behavior potentials may be contributing to changes in fire danger potential, as quantified by the United States Energy Release Component (ERC) and the Ignition Component (IC); 3) provides spatiotemporal insight on how fire danger potential and fire behavior potential are responding in relation to changes in seasonal precipitation totals and seasonal mean air temperature across biomes. Time series of these fire potentials, as well as seasonal mean temperature, and seasonal precipitation totals are generated using data from the 0.25° ECMWF spatial resolution Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) and the Climatic Research Unit gridded Time Series (CRU TS). The Mann-Kendall test is then applied to identify significant spatiotemporal trends across each biome. Results indicate that the September–November season (SON) exhibits the greatest rate of increase in fire danger potential, followed by the June–August season (JJA), December, January–February season (DJF), and March–May season (MAM), and this is predominant over the Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forest Biome, as well as all vegetation types of the temperate biomes. Similarly, the temperate biomes experience the greatest rate of increase in fire intensity potential and ignition potential, but prevalent during the DJF and MAM seasons. Furthermore, there is a significant positive correlation between fire danger potential and seasonal mean air temperature during JJA in the Northern Hemisphere for the temperate biomes in North America and Europe, as well as the Tropical and Subtropical biomes in Africa. Our analysis provides quantitative insight as to how fire danger potential and fire behavior potential have been responding to changes in seasonal mean temperature and seasonal precipitation totals across different ecoregions around the world.",

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author = "Baijnath-Rodino, {Janine A.} and Le, {Phong V.V.} and Efi Foufoula-Georgiou and Tirtha Banerjee",

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doi = "10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161954",

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AU - Baijnath-Rodino, Janine A.

AU - Le, Phong V.V.

AU - Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi

AU - Banerjee, Tirtha

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AB - This study 1) identifies the seasons and biomes that exhibit significant (1980–2019) changes in fire danger potential, as quantified by the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI); 2) explores what types of fire behavior potentials may be contributing to changes in fire danger potential, as quantified by the United States Energy Release Component (ERC) and the Ignition Component (IC); 3) provides spatiotemporal insight on how fire danger potential and fire behavior potential are responding in relation to changes in seasonal precipitation totals and seasonal mean air temperature across biomes. Time series of these fire potentials, as well as seasonal mean temperature, and seasonal precipitation totals are generated using data from the 0.25° ECMWF spatial resolution Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) and the Climatic Research Unit gridded Time Series (CRU TS). The Mann-Kendall test is then applied to identify significant spatiotemporal trends across each biome. Results indicate that the September–November season (SON) exhibits the greatest rate of increase in fire danger potential, followed by the June–August season (JJA), December, January–February season (DJF), and March–May season (MAM), and this is predominant over the Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forest Biome, as well as all vegetation types of the temperate biomes. Similarly, the temperate biomes experience the greatest rate of increase in fire intensity potential and ignition potential, but prevalent during the DJF and MAM seasons. Furthermore, there is a significant positive correlation between fire danger potential and seasonal mean air temperature during JJA in the Northern Hemisphere for the temperate biomes in North America and Europe, as well as the Tropical and Subtropical biomes in Africa. Our analysis provides quantitative insight as to how fire danger potential and fire behavior potential have been responding to changes in seasonal mean temperature and seasonal precipitation totals across different ecoregions around the world.

KW - Biomes

KW - Drought

KW - Fire danger potential

KW - Fire intensity

KW - Ignition component

KW - Wildfires

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VL - 870

JO - Science of the Total Environment

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M1 - 161954

ER -

Historical spatiotemporal changes in fire danger potential across biomes

Abstract

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

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