Global assessment of the carbon–water tradeoff of dry cooling for thermal power generation

Water scarcity and climate change are dual challenges that could potentially threaten energy security. Yet, integrated water–carbon management frameworks coupling diverse water- and carbon-mitigation technologies at high spatial heterogeneity are largely underdeveloped. Here we build a global unit-level framework to investigate the CO₂ emission and energy penalty due to the deployment of dry cooling—a critical water mitigation strategy—together with alternative water sourcing and carbon capture and storage under climate scenarios. We find that CO₂ emission and energy penalty for dry cooling units are location and climate specific (for example, 1–15% of power output), often demonstrating notably faster efficiency losses than rising temperature, especially under the high climate change scenario. Despite energy and CO₂ penalties associated with alternative water treatment and carbon capture and storage utilization, increasing wastewater and brine water accessibility provide potential alternatives to dry cooling for water scarcity alleviation, whereas CO₂ storage can help to mitigate dry cooling-associated CO₂ emission tradeoffs when alternative water supply is insufficient. By demonstrating an integrative planning framework, our study highlights the importance of integrated power sector planning under interconnected dual water–carbon challenges.