Abstract
Large-scale infrastructures are critical to economic and social development, and hence their continued performance and security are of high national importance. Such an infrastructure often is a system of systems, and its functionality critically depends on the inherent robustness of its constituent systems and its defense strategy for countering attacks. Additionally, interdependencies between the systems play another critical role in determining the infrastructure robustness specified by its survival probability. In this paper, we develop game-theoretic models between a defender and an attacker for a generic system of systems using inherent parameters and conditional survival probabilities that characterize the interdependencies. We derive Nash Equilibrium conditions for the cases of interdependent and independent systems of systems under sum-form utility functions. We derive expressions for the infrastructure survival probability that capture its dependence on cost and system parameters, and also on dependencies that are specified by conditional probabilities. We apply the results to cyber-physical systems which show the effects on system survival probability due to defense and attack intensities, inherent robustness, unit cost, target valuation, and interdependencies.
| Original language | English |
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| Title of host publication | 20th International Conference on Information Fusion, Fusion 2017 - Proceedings |
| Publisher | Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. |
| ISBN (Electronic) | 9780996452700 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Aug 11 2017 |
| Event | 20th International Conference on Information Fusion, Fusion 2017 - Xi'an, China Duration: Jul 10 2017 → Jul 13 2017 |
Publication series
| Name | 20th International Conference on Information Fusion, Fusion 2017 - Proceedings |
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Conference
| Conference | 20th International Conference on Information Fusion, Fusion 2017 |
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| Country/Territory | China |
| City | Xi'an |
| Period | 07/10/17 → 07/13/17 |
Funding
ACKNOWLEDGMENT This work was funded by the Mathematics of Complex, Distributed, Interconnected Systems Program, Office of Advanced Computing Research, U.S. Department of Energy under award number 4000147347, and was performed in part at Oak Ridge National Laboratory managed by UT-Battelle, LLC for U.S. Department of Energy. However, any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect views of the Department of Energy.