Future increases in Amazonia water stress from CO2 physiology and deforestation

Yue Li; Jessica C.A. Baker; Paulo M. Brando; Forrest M. Hoffman; David M. Lawrence; Douglas C. Morton; Abigail L.S. Swann; Maria del Rosario Uribe; James T. Randerson

doi:10.1038/s44221-023-00128-y

Future increases in Amazonia water stress from CO₂ physiology and deforestation

Yue Li, Jessica C.A. Baker, Paulo M. Brando, Forrest M. Hoffman, David M. Lawrence, Douglas C. Morton, Abigail L.S. Swann, Maria del Rosario Uribe, James T. Randerson

Computational Earth Sciences Group

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

9 Scopus citations

Abstract

Several different drivers are contributing to climate change within the Amazon basin, including forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols, plant physiology responses to rising CO₂, and deforestation. Attribution among these drivers has not been quantified for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate simulations. Here we identify the contribution of CO₂ physiology and deforestation to future hydroclimate change in the Amazon basin by combining information from four experiments and eight different Earth system models in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Together, forcing from CO₂ physiology and deforestation account for about 44% of the projected annual precipitation decline, 48% of surface relative humidity decline and 11% of warming over the Amazon basin by 2100 for SSP3-7.0. Other Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 SSP simulations have similar contributions from the two drivers. Insight from our attribution analysis can aid in identifying research priorities aimed at reducing uncertainty in future projections of water availability, carbon dynamics and wildfire risk.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	769-777
Number of pages	9
Journal	Nature Water
Volume	1
Issue number	9
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-023-00128-y
State	Published - Sep 2023

Funding

Y.L. and J.T.R. acknowledge support from the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research (BER), Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling programme to study dust and fire (DE-SC0021302) and the RUBISCO Scientific Focus Area. J.T.R. and D.C.M. received funding support from NASA\u2019s SERVIR and MAP research programmes. A.L.S.S. recognizes funding support from DOE BER Regional and Global Model Analysis programme (DE-SC0021209). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, the decision to publish, or manuscript preparation.

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title = "Future increases in Amazonia water stress from CO2 physiology and deforestation",

abstract = "Several different drivers are contributing to climate change within the Amazon basin, including forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols, plant physiology responses to rising CO2, and deforestation. Attribution among these drivers has not been quantified for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate simulations. Here we identify the contribution of CO2 physiology and deforestation to future hydroclimate change in the Amazon basin by combining information from four experiments and eight different Earth system models in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Together, forcing from CO2 physiology and deforestation account for about 44% of the projected annual precipitation decline, 48% of surface relative humidity decline and 11% of warming over the Amazon basin by 2100 for SSP3-7.0. Other Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 SSP simulations have similar contributions from the two drivers. Insight from our attribution analysis can aid in identifying research priorities aimed at reducing uncertainty in future projections of water availability, carbon dynamics and wildfire risk.",

author = "Yue Li and Baker, {Jessica C.A.} and Brando, {Paulo M.} and Hoffman, {Forrest M.} and Lawrence, {David M.} and Morton, {Douglas C.} and Swann, {Abigail L.S.} and Uribe, {Maria del Rosario} and Randerson, {James T.}",

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AU - Brando, Paulo M.

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AU - Lawrence, David M.

AU - Morton, Douglas C.

AU - Swann, Abigail L.S.

AU - Uribe, Maria del Rosario

AU - Randerson, James T.

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Future increases in Amazonia water stress from CO₂ physiology and deforestation

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